Anadolu Efes Istanbul vs Virtus Bologna Prediction · EuroLeague 2026-27 Regular Season · November 13, 2026
Anadolu Efes Istanbul
Virtus Bologna
Why the Model Favors Anadolu Efes Istanbul
The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.
Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 69% for Anadolu Efes Istanbul. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →
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HOMEAnadolu Efes Istanbul
AWAYVirtus Bologna
Starting Five Matchup
Key Prediction Insights
Anadolu Efes Istanbul is favored at home, with a 69% chance to beat Virtus Bologna. Dario Saric is projected to provide Efes with a strong all-round contribution.
Total Points & Spread Analysis
The projected total is 182 points, with Efes ahead by four. That points to a fairly high-scoring game and a modest home advantage rather than a wide gap.
Full probability curves from our Poisson (total) and Negative-Binomial (spread) models: both the distribution (PDF) and the cumulative probability (CDF).
Total Points · expected 181.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)
Spread (Anadolu Efes Istanbul − Virtus Bologna) · expected +3.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)
ELO Rating Trends
Efes’ rating has been essentially flat, up two points over its last five games, while Virtus is falling sharply, down 102.
Anadolu Efes Istanbul
Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).
Virtus Bologna
Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).
EuroLeague ELO Power Rankings
See how every team stacks up: full ELO ratings, recent form and the season progression chart.
View Full ELO RatingsRecent Form: Last 5 Games
Anadolu Efes Istanbul
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Besiktas Istanbul | 89 | 80 | +9 | |
| Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv | 88 | 118 | -30 | |
| Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens | 83 | 68 | +15 | |
| Paris Basketball | 90 | 95 | -5 |
Virtus Bologna
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv | 81 | 90 | -9 | |
| Zalgiris Kaunas | 74 | 91 | -17 | |
| Besiktas Istanbul | 101 | 103 | -2 | |
| Dubai Basketball | 75 | 93 | -18 |
Game Analysis
Home court is the largest force behind Efes’ position, reinforced by its ratings advantage. The teams share a 4-6 record, so venue and underlying team strength separate them more than their standings do. Efes’ recent results have been mixed, while Virtus has lost its three latest listed games, alongside its steep rating decline.
Saric is projected for 14 points and six rebounds, while Cameron Payne is projected for 15 points and 4.6 assists, giving Efes scoring and creation from its starting group. Marcus Carr is projected for 12 points and 4.3 assists, and Derrick Alston Jr. for 12 points and 1.9 made threes. Their perimeter production could help Virtus keep pace.
Final Prediction
Virtus could make the narrow projected margin disappear if Alston and Carr produce more from the perimeter than Efes’ projected guards.
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