Armani Olimpia Milan vs Zalgiris Kaunas Prediction · EuroLeague 2026-27 Regular Season · November 12, 2026
Armani Olimpia Milan
Zalgiris Kaunas
Why the Model Favors Zalgiris Kaunas
The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.
Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 54% for Zalgiris Kaunas. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →
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HOMEArmani Olimpia Milan
AWAYZalgiris Kaunas
Starting Five Matchup
Key Prediction Insights
Zalgiris Kaunas is favored to win, with a 54% probability, despite playing away from home. Milan’s home-court advantage is the strongest force in its favor, but Zalgiris’ team strength and better season record tilt the forecast toward the visitors.
Total Points & Spread Analysis
The projected total of 173 points suggests a game with plenty of scoring, while the expected margin is Zalgiris by three. That narrow gap points to a competitive finish rather than a comfortable win for either side.
Full probability curves from our Poisson (total) and Negative-Binomial (spread) models: both the distribution (PDF) and the cumulative probability (CDF).
Total Points · expected 172.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)
Spread (Armani Olimpia Milan − Zalgiris Kaunas) · expected -3.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)
ELO Rating Trends
Across the last five games, Milan’s ELO is falling by 48 points, while Zalgiris’ is rising by 106.
Armani Olimpia Milan
Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).
Zalgiris Kaunas
Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).
EuroLeague ELO Power Rankings
See how every team stacks up: full ELO ratings, recent form and the season progression chart.
View Full ELO RatingsRecent Form: Last 5 Games
Armani Olimpia Milan
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona | 81 | 89 | -8 | |
| Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens | 75 | 80 | -5 | |
| Olympiacos Piraeus | 78 | 84 | -6 | |
| Valencia Basket | 73 | 84 | -11 |
Zalgiris Kaunas
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne | 105 | 85 | +20 | |
| Virtus Bologna | 91 | 74 | +17 | |
| Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade | 87 | 80 | +7 | |
| Besiktas Istanbul | 83 | 67 | +16 |
Game Analysis
Home court gives Milan a substantial lift, but Zalgiris rates stronger overall, and the supporting edges in scoring and shooting, ball security, and rebounding all point the same way. In practical terms, Zalgiris has more routes to generate offense and keep possessions productive, while Milan needs its venue advantage to offset that broader profile.
The recent results reinforce the contrast: Milan has lost its three listed games, while Zalgiris has won its three. Jonas Valanciunas is projected for 14 points and seven rebounds, giving Zalgiris an interior focal point, and Carsen Edwards is projected for 15 points as its leading scoring threat. Moses Wright is projected for 12 points and six rebounds for Milan, making his work against Valanciunas important on both ends.
Final Prediction
If Wright can limit Valanciunas’ impact on the boards, Milan could turn its home-court boost into the difference. Otherwise, Zalgiris’ advantage inside may decide a close game.
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