Besiktas Istanbul vs Zalgiris Kaunas Prediction · EuroLeague 2026-27 Regular Season · November 6, 2026
Besiktas Istanbul
Zalgiris Kaunas
Why the Model Favors Besiktas Istanbul
The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.
Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 55% for Besiktas Istanbul. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →
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HOMEBesiktas Istanbul
AWAYZalgiris Kaunas
Starting Five Matchup
Key Prediction Insights
Besiktas Istanbul is favoured to win at home, with a 55% win probability. The slight lean comes despite Zalgiris’ stronger season record and recent results.
Total Points & Spread Analysis
The projected total is 169 points, pointing to a moderately high-scoring game. Besiktas is forecast to win by 1 point, so the numbers suggest a close finish.
Full probability curves from our Poisson (total) and Negative-Binomial (spread) models: both the distribution (PDF) and the cumulative probability (CDF).
Total Points · expected 169.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)
Spread (Besiktas Istanbul − Zalgiris Kaunas) · expected +1.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)
ELO Rating Trends
Besiktas’ rating is falling, down 10 points over its last five games, while Zalgiris is rising, up 32.
Besiktas Istanbul
Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).
Zalgiris Kaunas
Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).
EuroLeague ELO Power Rankings
See how every team stacks up: full ELO ratings, recent form and the season progression chart.
View Full ELO RatingsRecent Form: Last 5 Games
Besiktas Istanbul
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anadolu Efes Istanbul | 80 | 89 | -9 | |
| Olympiacos Piraeus | 73 | 81 | -8 | |
| Virtus Bologna | 103 | 101 | +2 |
Zalgiris Kaunas
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne | 105 | 85 | +20 | |
| Virtus Bologna | 91 | 74 | +17 | |
| Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade | 87 | 80 | +7 |
Game Analysis
Home court is the strongest factor in Besiktas’ favour, countering Zalgiris’ advantage in team strength. Zalgiris also has the model’s lean in rebounding and paint presence, scoring and shooting, and ballhandling, steals and fouls. Its three straight recent wins contrast with Besiktas’ mixed run, which includes two losses in its last three.
Jonas Valanciunas is projected for 13.9 points and 7.2 rebounds, giving Zalgiris a significant presence inside. Carsen Edwards’ projected 15.8 points and 2.7 threes add a perimeter scoring threat. For Besiktas, Jaylen Nowell is projected for 13 points, making his scoring important in a matchup where the home side’s projected margin is narrow.
Final Prediction
If Valanciunas and Zalgiris control the glass and paint, they can overcome Besiktas’ home-court advantage and turn a one-point forecast into an away win.
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