Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz vs Real Madrid Prediction · EuroLeague 2026-27 Regular Season · October 27, 2026

Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz

Home
53.2%
VS

Real Madrid

Away
46.8%
Regular Season EuroLeague 2026-27

Why the Model Favors Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Home court +14.2 Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +9.1 Real Madrid
Scoring & shooting +3.2 Real Madrid
Rebounding & paint presence +2.5 Real Madrid
Ballhandling, steals & fouls +2.0 Real Madrid

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 53% for Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Projections

Per-player expected lines and full probability distributions, including PIR, EuroLeague's signature box-score metric. Click a player to view their full distributions.

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HOMEKosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz

PTS9.1 REB2.0 AST3.6 3PM1.6 PIR9.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS12.8 REB2.2 AST2.5 3PM2.1 PIR11.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS10.0 REB2.1 AST1.8 3PM1.3 PIR9.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS9.5 REB4.6 AST0.9 3PM1.1 PIR11.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS9.7 REB5.7 AST1.0 3PM0.2 PIR12.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)

AWAYReal Madrid

PTS15.8 REB3.1 AST5.0 3PM1.0 PIR19.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS11.8 REB3.6 AST3.4 3PM1.9 PIR13.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS6.5 REB3.1 AST1.2 3PM0.7 PIR8.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS7.6 REB2.9 AST1.4 3PM1.7 PIR8.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS9.7 REB6.3 AST0.8 3PM0.0 PIR15.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)

Starting Five Matchup

1
Kobi Simmons Guard
PTS
9.1
PIR
9.0
REB
2.0
VS
Theo Maledon Guard
PTS
15.8
PIR
19.9
REB
3.1
2
A.J. Lawson Forward
PTS
12.8
PIR
11.2
REB
2.2
VS
Andres Feliz Guard
PTS
11.8
PIR
13.3
REB
3.6
3
Dj Stewart Forward
PTS
10.0
PIR
9.7
REB
2.1
VS
Mikael Jantunen Forward
PTS
6.5
PIR
8.2
REB
3.1
4
Tadas Sedekerskis Forward
PTS
9.5
PIR
11.0
REB
4.6
VS
Chuma Okeke Center
PTS
7.6
PIR
8.5
REB
2.9
5
Kenneth Faried Center
PTS
9.7
PIR
12.9
REB
5.7
VS
Walter Tavares Center
PTS
9.7
PIR
15.3
REB
6.3
1-5 = projected starter slot, the order the model expects the five to be named · PTS = Projected Points · PIR = Performance Index Rating (all-round impact) · REB = Projected Rebounds

Key Prediction Insights

Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz is the narrow model pick, with a 53% chance to win at home. The call runs against the stronger recent record and rising rating of Real Madrid.

Total Points & Spread Analysis

The projected total is 182 points, pointing to a high-scoring game. The separate margin forecast gives Real Madrid a 3-point edge, so it sees a close contest despite favoring Baskonia to win.

Full probability curves from our Poisson (total) and Negative-Binomial (spread) models: both the distribution (PDF) and the cumulative probability (CDF).

Total Points · expected 181.5

Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)

Spread (Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz − Real Madrid) · expected -3.4

Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)

ELO Rating Trends

Baskonia’s rating is falling, down 75 points over five games, while Madrid’s is rising, up 98.

Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz

-133 -70 over last 5 games

Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).

Real Madrid

+85 +94 over last 5 games

Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).

EuroLeague ELO Power Rankings

See how every team stacks up: full ELO ratings, recent form and the season progression chart.

View Full ELO Ratings

Recent Form: Last 5 Games

Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz

0-1 in last 1
L
OpponentPFPADiff
Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens 79 85 -6

Real Madrid

1-0 in last 1
W
OpponentPFPADiff
Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv 113 99 +14

Game Analysis

Home court is the clearest reason for the narrow Baskonia lean, but Madrid has the stronger team rating. Its advantages in shooting, rebounding and ball security all point toward a difficult matchup for the hosts.

Baskonia has lost its last three listed games and is 1-6, while Madrid is 4-3 after three straight wins. Theo Maledon is projected for 16 points and five assists, giving Madrid a leading scorer and playmaker. For Baskonia, A.J. Lawson is projected for 13 points, while Kobi Simmons is projected for four assists to help run the offense.

Final Prediction

Madrid’s projected rebounding and paint advantage, led by Walter Tavares, could be decisive if it blunts Baskonia’s home-court lift.

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