Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv vs Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv Prediction · EuroLeague 2026-27 Regular Season · November 12, 2026
Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv
Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv
Why the Model Favors Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv
The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.
Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 51% for Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →
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HOMEMaccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv
AWAYHapoel IBI Tel Aviv
Starting Five Matchup
Key Prediction Insights
Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv is favored to win, with a 51% probability. The narrow lean reflects Hapoel’s stronger team rating against Maccabi’s home-court advantage.
Total Points & Spread Analysis
The expected total is 182 points, pointing to a high-scoring game. Hapoel is projected to win by 2 points, so the numbers suggest a close finish.
Full probability curves from our Poisson (total) and Negative-Binomial (spread) models: both the distribution (PDF) and the cumulative probability (CDF).
Total Points · expected 181.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)
Spread (Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv − Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv) · expected -2.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)
ELO Rating Trends
Both teams’ ratings are falling over their last five games, with a sharp 84-point drop for Maccabi and a smaller 11-point decline for Hapoel.
Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv
Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).
Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv
Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).
EuroLeague ELO Power Rankings
See how every team stacks up: full ELO ratings, recent form and the season progression chart.
View Full ELO RatingsRecent Form: Last 5 Games
Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 99 | 113 | -14 | |
| Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade | 78 | 100 | -22 | |
| Paris Basketball | 94 | 99 | -5 | |
| Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade | 67 | 88 | -21 |
Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virtus Bologna | 90 | 81 | +9 | |
| Anadolu Efes Istanbul | 118 | 88 | +30 | |
| Dubai Basketball | 83 | 97 | -14 | |
| FC Barcelona | 90 | 93 | -3 |
Game Analysis
Home court is Maccabi’s strongest support, but Hapoel’s advantage in team strength, ballhandling and scoring tilts the prediction its way. Maccabi’s three listed recent games are all defeats, while Hapoel’s recent results include a win and two losses.
Hapoel’s Elijah Bryant is projected for 16 points and a 20.8 PIR, while Vasilije Micic is projected for 14.7 points. Their scoring and creation give Hapoel a strong backcourt base. Maccabi’s Yam Madar is projected for 12.7 points and 4.3 assists, making his playmaking important against Hapoel’s ballhandling edge.
Final Prediction
Maccabi can change the outcome if Madar limits Hapoel’s control of the ball and creates enough clean scoring chances to make its home-court advantage count.
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