Olympiacos Piraeus vs Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade Prediction · EuroLeague 2026-27 Regular Season · November 6, 2026
Olympiacos Piraeus
Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade
Why the Model Favors Olympiacos Piraeus
The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.
Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 70% for Olympiacos Piraeus. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →
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HOMEOlympiacos Piraeus
AWAYCrvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade
Starting Five Matchup
Key Prediction Insights
Olympiacos Piraeus is favored to win at 70 percent, with home court and its scoring profile supporting the advantage. The projection gives the hosts a clear edge, though Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade has a route to make the game close.
Total Points & Spread Analysis
The expected total is 178 points, a projection for a game with plenty of scoring. Olympiacos is projected to win by 7, pointing to a meaningful but not overwhelming margin.
Full probability curves from our Poisson (total) and Negative-Binomial (spread) models: both the distribution (PDF) and the cumulative probability (CDF).
Total Points · expected 177.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)
Spread (Olympiacos Piraeus − Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade) · expected +6.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)
ELO Rating Trends
Both teams’ ratings are rising over their last five games, with Olympiacos up 26 points and Crvena Zvezda up 27.
Olympiacos Piraeus
Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).
Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade
Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).
EuroLeague ELO Power Rankings
See how every team stacks up: full ELO ratings, recent form and the season progression chart.
View Full ELO RatingsRecent Form: Last 5 Games
Olympiacos Piraeus
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul | 61 | 64 | -3 | |
| Besiktas Istanbul | 81 | 73 | +8 | |
| Armani Olimpia Milan | 84 | 78 | +6 |
Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade | 82 | 85 | -3 | |
| Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv | 100 | 78 | +22 | |
| FC Bayern Munich | 103 | 73 | +30 |
Game Analysis
Home court is the strongest factor in Olympiacos’ favor, with scoring and shooting also helping separate the teams. The hosts’ recent results include two wins in their last three, while Zvezda has also won two of its last three and scored at least 100 points in each of its two most recent wins.
Sasha Vezenkov is projected for 17.4 points and 5.6 rebounds, making his scoring and work on the boards central to Olympiacos’ outlook. For Zvezda, Chris Jones’ projected 5.5 assists give the visitors a playmaking focal point, while Chima Moneke is projected for 10.1 points. Zvezda’s relative advantage in ballhandling, steals and fouls could help it disrupt Olympiacos’ offense and create extra chances.
Final Prediction
If Zvezda can turn its ballhandling and defensive activity into turnovers and additional possessions, it can narrow the home side’s projected advantage. If Olympiacos controls the game at home and sustains its scoring edge, the hosts are favored to pull clear.
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