2. Bundesliga 2026-2027: Cottbus vs St Pauli Prediction - 20 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Cottbus

Home Team
28%
VS

St Pauli

Away Team
45%
Draw: 28%
Over 2.5: 57%
Under 2.5: 43%
Goal: 69%
No Goal: 31%
Expected Corners: 10.7
Expected Shots: 29.0
Expected Spread: -0.6

Why the Model Leans St Pauli

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Cottbus
Defense +8.0 St Pauli
Results & dominance +7.5 St Pauli
Attack +3.8 St Pauli
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +2.1 St Pauli

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 62% for St Pauli. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Cottbus attack & chance creation +4.3 Over
League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Cottbus defense +2.0 Over
St Pauli defense +1.1 Over
Form & results +0.7 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 57% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Hertha 5 5 0 0 15 6 9 15
2 Nurnberg 5 4 1 0 15 6 9 13
3 Heidenheim 5 4 0 1 12 10 2 12
4 Magdeburg 5 3 0 2 10 8 2 9
5 Wolfsburg 5 2 2 1 10 7 3 8
6 Kaiserslautern 5 2 2 1 5 4 1 8
7 Cottbus 5 2 1 2 13 12 1 7
8 Bochum 5 2 1 2 4 4 0 7
9 St Pauli 5 1 3 1 7 7 0 6
10 Osnabruck 5 2 0 3 8 11 -3 6
11 Greuther Furth 5 1 2 2 8 10 -2 5
12 Karlsruhe 5 1 2 2 6 11 -5 5
13 Braunschweig 5 1 1 3 12 12 0 4
14 Bielefeld 5 1 1 3 8 10 -2 4
15 Hannover 5 1 1 3 5 8 -3 4
16 Darmstadt 5 1 1 3 4 8 -4 4
17 Dresden 5 1 1 3 7 12 -5 4
18 Holstein Kiel 5 0 3 2 6 9 -3 3

Recent Trends

Cottbus W D L L W

  • Last Match: W vs Karlsruhe (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 4 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Greuther Furth (Goals: 3 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Bielefeld (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Hannover (Goals: 3 - 1)

St Pauli W D L D D

  • Last Match: W vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Bielefeld (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Kaiserslautern (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Holstein Kiel (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Greuther Furth (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Cottbus

Goals scored (avg, home) 3.00
Goals conceded (avg, home) 2.50
Clean Sheets 1

St Pauli

Goals scored (avg, away) 2.00
Goals conceded (avg, away) 2.00
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Cottbus a 28% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 28% and St Pauli at 45%. St Pauli are the favourite, but the gap to the other outcomes is modest. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 57% and sees both teams scoring in 69% of cases.

Match Analysis

Cottbus arrive with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (WDLLW from most recent), scoring 13 and conceding 12 with 1 clean sheet. St Pauli arrive with 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (WDLDD from most recent), scoring 7 and conceding 7 with 1 clean sheet. In the table Cottbus sit 7th with 7 points from 5 games and a goal difference of +1, while St Pauli are 9th with 6 points and a level goal difference. That puts Cottbus 1 point clear of their opponent. Cottbus average 3.0 goals scored and 2.5 conceded over their last five home games, while St Pauli average 2.0 scored and 2.0 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Cottbus), defense (8.0 points toward St Pauli), results & dominance (7.5 points toward St Pauli). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Cottbus
Goals in last 5 matches
St Pauli
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 43% and Over 2.5 at 57%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Cottbus matches produced 5.0 goals on average over their last 5, St Pauli matches 2.8. Both teams to score comes in at 69%, no goal for at least one side at 31%. In the model's own attribution, Cottbus attack & chance creation pulls toward Over by 4.3 points and league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Cottbus
Corners in last 5 matches
St Pauli
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 10.7 corners in total. The single most likely count is 10. The chance of 10 corners or fewer is 50%, which leaves 50% for 11 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Cottbus
Shots in last 5 matches
St Pauli
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 29.0 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 29. The chance of 29 shots or fewer is 55%, which leaves 45% for 30 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Cottbus wins by X goals. Negative = St Pauli wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Cottbus vs St Pauli with expected spread of -0.6
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Cottbus vs St Pauli
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.6 goals in favour of St Pauli. The spread model gives 15% to a Cottbus win by two goals or more and 55% to any St Pauli win. A St Pauli win by 1 is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: St Pauli win (45%), Over 2.5 (57%), Goal (69%). Expected totals: 10.7 corners and 29.0 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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