St Pauli

2. Bundesliga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1592 · #4 2. Bundesliga 2W-4D-1L · 10 pts In line Updated Oct 11, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #7 of 18 48.8 expected pts · currently 10 pts after 7 matches

League title 1.1%
Promotion 4.4%
Automatic promotion 4.4%
Promotion barrage 6.6%
Relegation barrage 1.7%
Relegation 1.7%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full 2. Bundesliga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is St Pauli?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 25 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, St Pauli's results were 1.7% harder to call than the Bundesliga average. How this is measured.

MarketSt PauliLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 52.0% 55.9%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 56.0% 63.2%
Both teams to score 44.0% 59.1%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 2. Bundesliga #4 1605 1605 1592
2025-26 Bundesliga #18 1498 1547 1354
2024-25 Bundesliga #17 1452 1478 1386
2023-24 2. Bundesliga #3 1640 1716 1641
2022-23 2. Bundesliga #1 1554 1675 1658
2021-22 2. Bundesliga #6 1514 1642 1548
2020-21 2. Bundesliga #11 1463 1577 1481
2019-20 2. Bundesliga #14 1458 1514 1446
2018-19 2. Bundesliga #16 1509 1588 1440
2017-18 2. Bundesliga #12 1529 1548 1472

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 11, 2026 vs Karlsruhe W St Pauli 55.2% · draw 25.3% W ✓
Sep 20, 2026 at Cottbus W St Pauli 44.8% · draw 27.5% D ✗

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