St Pauli
Bundesliga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #18 of 18 in Bundesliga 26 pts · 6W–8D–20L · GD -31
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Bundesliga simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is St Pauli?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 28 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, St Pauli's results were 0.1% easier to call than the Bundesliga average. How this is measured.
| Market | St Pauli | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 50.0% | 55.6% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 57.1% | 63.9% |
| Both teams to score | 39.3% | 59.9% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Bundesliga | #18 | 1498 | 1547 | 1354 |
| 2024-25 | Bundesliga | #17 | 1452 | 1478 | 1386 |
| 2023-24 | 2. Bundesliga | #3 | 1640 | 1716 | 1641 |
| 2022-23 | 2. Bundesliga | #1 | 1554 | 1675 | 1658 |
| 2021-22 | 2. Bundesliga | #6 | 1514 | 1642 | 1548 |
| 2020-21 | 2. Bundesliga | #11 | 1463 | 1577 | 1481 |
| 2019-20 | 2. Bundesliga | #14 | 1458 | 1514 | 1446 |
| 2018-19 | 2. Bundesliga | #16 | 1509 | 1588 | 1440 |
| 2017-18 | 2. Bundesliga | #12 | 1529 | 1548 | 1472 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 09, 2026 | at RB Leipzig | L St Pauli 10.0% · draw 12.0% | L ✓ |
| May 03, 2026 | vs Mainz | L St Pauli 30.8% · draw 25.0% | L ✓ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | at Heidenheim | W St Pauli 38.1% · draw 25.3% | L ✗ |
| Apr 17, 2026 | vs FC Köln | L St Pauli 26.9% · draw 22.9% | D ✗ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs Bayern Munich | L St Pauli 11.1% · draw 12.0% | L ✓ |
| Apr 05, 2026 | at Union Berlin | L St Pauli 35.5% · draw 25.0% | D ✗ |
| Mar 22, 2026 | vs Freiburg | L St Pauli 28.2% · draw 23.7% | L ✓ |
| Mar 13, 2026 | at Borussia Mönchengladbach | L St Pauli 26.6% · draw 24.2% | L ✓ |
| Mar 08, 2026 | vs Eintracht Frankfurt | W St Pauli 42.7% · draw 25.7% | D ✗ |
| Feb 28, 2026 | at Hoffenheim | L St Pauli 11.2% · draw 13.1% | W ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Bundesliga title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/st-pauli">Bundesliga title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
<iframe src="https://www.predixsport.com/embed/title-odds/bundesliga"
width="360" height="430" style="border:0;border-radius:10px" loading="lazy"
title="Bundesliga title odds & club ELO ratings — Predixsport"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/st-pauli">Bundesliga title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>