2. Bundesliga 2026-2027: Darmstadt vs Cottbus Prediction - 10 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Darmstadt

Home Team
41%
VS

Cottbus

Away Team
31%
Draw: 28%
Over 2.5: 62%
Under 2.5: 38%
Goal: 66%
No Goal: 34%
Expected Corners: 11.2
Expected Shots: 29.6
Expected Spread: -0.3

Why the Model Leans Darmstadt

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Darmstadt
Attack +8.9 Darmstadt
Defense +6.2 Cottbus
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +5.5 Cottbus
Results & dominance +0.7 Cottbus

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 57% for Darmstadt. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Cottbus attack & chance creation +10.5 Over
League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Darmstadt defense +1.9 Over
Darmstadt attack & chance creation +1.6 Under
Cottbus defense +1.1 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 62% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Hertha 6 6 0 0 17 7 10 18
2 Nurnberg 6 5 1 0 16 6 10 16
3 Heidenheim 6 4 1 1 14 12 2 13
4 Wolfsburg 6 3 2 1 15 8 7 11
5 Kaiserslautern 6 3 2 1 6 4 2 11
6 Magdeburg 6 3 1 2 11 9 2 10
7 Cottbus 6 2 2 2 14 13 1 8
8 St Pauli 6 1 4 1 8 8 0 7
9 Bochum 6 2 1 3 5 6 -1 7
10 Hannover 6 2 1 3 7 9 -2 7
11 Osnabruck 6 2 1 3 9 12 -3 7
12 Greuther Furth 6 1 3 2 9 11 -2 6
13 Bielefeld 6 1 2 3 10 12 -2 5
14 Karlsruhe 6 1 2 3 6 12 -6 5
15 Braunschweig 6 1 1 4 12 13 -1 4
16 Holstein Kiel 6 0 4 2 7 10 -3 4
17 Dresden 6 1 1 4 8 14 -6 4
18 Darmstadt 6 1 1 4 5 13 -8 4

Recent Trends

Darmstadt L W L L L

  • Last Match: L vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 1 - 5)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Bielefeld (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Kaiserslautern (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Hannover (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Dresden (Goals: 0 - 1)

Cottbus D W D L L

  • Last Match: D vs St Pauli (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Karlsruhe (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 4 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Greuther Furth (Goals: 3 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Bielefeld (Goals: 0 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Darmstadt

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.33
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.33
Clean Sheets 0

Cottbus

Goals scored (avg, away) 2.33
Goals conceded (avg, away) 2.33
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Darmstadt a 41% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 28% and Cottbus at 31%. This is a tight call, with Darmstadt only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 62% and sees both teams scoring in 66% of cases.

Match Analysis

Darmstadt arrive with 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats from their last 5 league games (LWLLL from most recent), scoring 3 and conceding 11 with 0 clean sheets. Cottbus arrive with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (DWDLL from most recent), scoring 11 and conceding 12 with 1 clean sheet. In the table Darmstadt sit 18th with 4 points from 6 games and a goal difference of -8, while Cottbus are 7th with 8 points and a goal difference of +1. That puts Cottbus 4 points clear of their opponent. Darmstadt average 1.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over their last five home games, while Cottbus average 2.3 scored and 2.3 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Darmstadt), attack (8.9 points toward Darmstadt), defense (6.2 points toward Cottbus). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Darmstadt
Goals in last 5 matches
Cottbus
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 38% and Over 2.5 at 62%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Darmstadt matches produced 2.8 goals on average over their last 5, Cottbus matches 4.6. Both teams to score comes in at 66%, no goal for at least one side at 34%. In the model's own attribution, Cottbus attack & chance creation pulls toward Over by 10.5 points and league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Darmstadt
Corners in last 5 matches
Cottbus
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 11.2 corners in total. The single most likely count is 11. The chance of 11 corners or fewer is 55%, which leaves 45% for 12 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Darmstadt
Shots in last 5 matches
Cottbus
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 29.6 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 29. The chance of 29 shots or fewer is 50%, which leaves 50% for 30 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Darmstadt wins by X goals. Negative = Cottbus wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Darmstadt vs Cottbus with expected spread of -0.3
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Darmstadt vs Cottbus
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.3 goals in favour of Cottbus. The spread model gives 19% to a Darmstadt win by two goals or more and 49% to any Cottbus win. A Cottbus win by 1 is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Darmstadt win (41%), Over 2.5 (62%), Goal (66%). Expected totals: 11.2 corners and 29.6 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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