Darmstadt
2. Bundesliga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #15 of 18 40.1 expected pts · currently 7 pts after 7 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full 2. Bundesliga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #5 of 18 in 2. Bundesliga 52 pts · 13W-13D-8L · GD +12
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full 2. Bundesliga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Darmstadt?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 29 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Darmstadt's results were 2.3% easier to call than the 2. Bundesliga average. How this is measured.
| Market | Darmstadt | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 41.4% | 47.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 51.7% | 53.6% |
| Both teams to score | 62.1% | 61.3% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 2. Bundesliga | #13 | 1476 | 1476 | 1460 |
| 2025-26 | 2. Bundesliga | #14 | 1522 | 1640 | 1461 |
| 2024-25 | 2. Bundesliga | #13 | 1539 | 1617 | 1483 |
| 2023-24 | Bundesliga | #18 | 1482 | 1482 | 1270 |
| 2022-23 | 2. Bundesliga | #5 | 1537 | 1716 | 1583 |
| 2021-22 | 2. Bundesliga | #4 | 1553 | 1660 | 1592 |
| 2020-21 | 2. Bundesliga | #3 | 1555 | 1623 | 1623 |
| 2019-20 | 2. Bundesliga | #2 | 1538 | 1600 | 1600 |
| 2018-19 | 2. Bundesliga | #6 | 1548 | 1567 | 1547 |
| 2017-18 | 2. Bundesliga | #5 | 1518 | 1568 | 1541 |
| 2016-17 | Bundesliga | #18 | 1480 | 1501 | 1385 |
| 2015-16 | Bundesliga | #16 | 1498 | 1529 | 1442 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
The 2. Bundesliga title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0. Attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
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