Darmstadt
2. Bundesliga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #5 of 18 in 2. Bundesliga 52 pts · 13W–13D–8L · GD +12
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full 2. Bundesliga simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Darmstadt?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 29 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Darmstadt's results were 2.3% easier to call than the 2. Bundesliga average. How this is measured.
| Market | Darmstadt | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 41.4% | 47.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 51.7% | 53.6% |
| Both teams to score | 62.1% | 61.3% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 2. Bundesliga | #14 | 1522 | 1640 | 1461 |
| 2024-25 | 2. Bundesliga | #13 | 1539 | 1617 | 1483 |
| 2023-24 | Bundesliga | #18 | 1482 | 1482 | 1270 |
| 2022-23 | 2. Bundesliga | #5 | 1537 | 1716 | 1583 |
| 2021-22 | 2. Bundesliga | #4 | 1553 | 1660 | 1592 |
| 2020-21 | 2. Bundesliga | #3 | 1555 | 1623 | 1623 |
| 2019-20 | 2. Bundesliga | #2 | 1538 | 1600 | 1600 |
| 2018-19 | 2. Bundesliga | #6 | 1548 | 1567 | 1547 |
| 2017-18 | 2. Bundesliga | #5 | 1518 | 1568 | 1541 |
| 2016-17 | Bundesliga | #18 | 1480 | 1501 | 1385 |
| 2015-16 | Bundesliga | #16 | 1498 | 1529 | 1442 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | vs Paderborn | L Darmstadt 32.8% · draw 29.0% | L ✓ |
| May 10, 2026 | at Preußen Münster | W Darmstadt 40.3% · draw 28.1% | D ✗ |
| May 03, 2026 | at Karlsruhe | W Darmstadt 41.3% · draw 26.8% | L ✗ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vs Elversberg | L Darmstadt 30.2% · draw 29.7% | D ✗ |
| Apr 19, 2026 | at Greuther Furth | W Darmstadt 44.8% · draw 27.0% | L ✗ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs Hannover | L Darmstadt 32.7% · draw 30.1% | L ✓ |
| Apr 04, 2026 | at Bielefeld | W Darmstadt 36.7% · draw 29.6% | L ✗ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Schalke 04 | W Darmstadt 36.1% · draw 31.9% | D ✗ |
| Mar 13, 2026 | at Magdeburg | W Darmstadt 42.0% · draw 27.4% | D ✗ |
| Mar 07, 2026 | vs Holstein Kiel | W Darmstadt 55.2% · draw 23.7% | W ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
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