Ligue 2 2026-2027: Guingamp vs Annecy Prediction - 12 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Guingamp

Home Team
36%
VS

Annecy

Away Team
32%
Draw: 31%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.0
Expected Shots: 25.4
Expected Spread: -0.1

Why the Model Leans Guingamp

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Guingamp
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +6.5 Annecy
Attack +1.7 Annecy

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 53% for Guingamp. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Annecy defense +1.2 Over
Guingamp attack & chance creation +1.2 Under
Guingamp defense +0.8 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 52% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 St Etienne 5 5 0 0 16 4 12 15
2 Annecy 5 3 1 1 7 5 2 10
3 Reims 5 2 3 0 12 7 5 9
4 Metz 5 2 3 0 8 4 4 9
5 Montpellier 5 2 2 1 4 4 0 8
6 Red Star 5 2 2 1 5 6 -1 8
7 Nancy 5 2 1 2 3 2 1 7
8 Rodez 5 2 1 2 11 11 0 7
9 Sochaux 5 1 3 1 2 4 -2 6
10 Dunkerque 5 1 2 2 8 9 -1 5
11 Guingamp 5 1 2 2 7 8 -1 5
12 Pau FC 5 1 2 2 4 5 -1 5
13 Boulogne 5 0 4 1 2 3 -1 4
14 Clermont 5 0 4 1 3 5 -2 4
15 Nantes 5 1 1 3 7 11 -4 4
16 Grenoble 5 1 1 3 6 10 -4 4
17 Laval 5 1 1 3 5 10 -5 4
18 Dijon 5 0 3 2 5 7 -2 3

Recent Trends

Guingamp D D L W L

  • Last Match: D vs Reims (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Nantes (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Sochaux (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Boulogne (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Metz (Goals: 1 - 2)

Annecy W D L W W

  • Last Match: W vs Grenoble (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Metz (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Reims (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Rodez (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Pau FC (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Guingamp

Goals scored (avg, home) 2.00
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.50
Clean Sheets 1

Annecy

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.33
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.33
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Guingamp a 36% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 31% and Annecy at 32%. This is a tight call, with Guingamp only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 52% and sees both teams scoring in 52% of cases.

Match Analysis

Guingamp arrive with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (DDLWL from most recent), scoring 7 and conceding 8 with 1 clean sheet. Annecy arrive with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (WDLWW from most recent), scoring 7 and conceding 5 with 2 clean sheets. In the table Guingamp sit 11th with 5 points from 5 games and a goal difference of -1, while Annecy are 2nd with 10 points and a goal difference of +2. That puts Annecy 5 points clear of their opponent. Guingamp average 2.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over their last five home games, while Annecy average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Guingamp), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (6.5 points toward Annecy), attack (1.7 points toward Annecy). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Guingamp
Goals in last 5 matches
Annecy
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 52% and Over 2.5 at 48%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Guingamp matches produced 3.0 goals on average over their last 5, Annecy matches 2.4. Both teams to score comes in at 52%, no goal for at least one side at 48%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Annecy defense pulls toward Over by 1.2 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Guingamp
Corners in last 5 matches
Annecy
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.0 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 58%, which leaves 42% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Guingamp
Shots in last 5 matches
Annecy
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 25.4 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 25. The chance of 25 shots or fewer is 52%, which leaves 48% for 26 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Guingamp wins by X goals. Negative = Annecy wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Guingamp vs Annecy with expected spread of -0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Guingamp vs Annecy
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.1 goals in favour of Annecy. The spread model gives 21% to a Guingamp win by two goals or more and 46% to any Annecy win. An Annecy win by 1 is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Guingamp win (36%), Under 2.5 (52%), Goal (52%). Expected totals: 9.0 corners and 25.4 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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