Ligue 2 2026-2027: Guingamp vs Red Star Prediction - 19 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Guingamp

Home Team
36%
VS

Red Star

Away Team
32%
Draw: 31%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 25.0
Expected Spread: -0.2

Why the Model Leans Guingamp

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Guingamp
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +3.5 Red Star
Defense +2.9 Red Star
Attack +1.0 Red Star

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 53% for Guingamp. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Guingamp defense +1.0 Under
Red Star attack & chance creation +0.8 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 52% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Also available in Claude and Perplexity. Query these predictions in plain language: our native connector lets your AI assistant call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 St Etienne 6 5 0 1 17 6 11 15
2 Reims 6 3 3 0 14 8 6 12
3 Montpellier 6 3 2 1 5 4 1 11
4 Red Star 6 3 2 1 6 6 0 11
5 Annecy 6 3 1 2 8 7 1 10
6 Metz 6 2 3 1 8 5 3 9
7 Sochaux 6 2 3 1 3 4 -1 9
8 Dunkerque 6 2 2 2 10 10 0 8
9 Guingamp 6 2 2 2 9 9 0 8
10 Nancy 6 2 1 3 4 4 0 7
11 Rodez 6 2 1 3 11 12 -1 7
12 Grenoble 6 2 1 3 7 10 -3 7
13 Dijon 6 1 3 2 8 9 -1 6
14 Boulogne 6 0 5 1 2 3 -1 5
15 Pau FC 6 1 2 3 4 6 -2 5
16 Clermont 6 0 5 1 3 5 -2 5
17 Nantes 6 1 1 4 7 12 -5 4
18 Laval 6 1 1 4 7 13 -6 4

Recent Trends

Guingamp W D D L W

  • Last Match: W vs Annecy (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Reims (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Nantes (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Sochaux (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Boulogne (Goals: 1 - 0)

Red Star W W L D D

  • Last Match: W vs Metz (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Laval (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Reims (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Boulogne (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Sochaux (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Guingamp

Goals scored (avg, home) 2.00
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.33
Clean Sheets 1

Red Star

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.33
Goals conceded (avg, away) 0.67
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Guingamp a 36% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 31% and Red Star at 32%. This is a tight call, with Guingamp only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 52% and sees both teams scoring in 54% of cases.

Match Analysis

Guingamp arrive with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (WDDLW from most recent), scoring 8 and conceding 7 with 1 clean sheet. Red Star arrive with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (WWLDD from most recent), scoring 5 and conceding 6 with 2 clean sheets. In the table Guingamp sit 9th with 8 points from 6 games and a level goal difference, while Red Star are 4th with 11 points and a level goal difference. That puts Red Star 3 points clear of their opponent. Guingamp average 2.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over their last five home games, while Red Star average 1.3 scored and 0.7 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Guingamp), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (3.5 points toward Red Star), defense (2.9 points toward Red Star). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Guingamp
Goals in last 5 matches
Red Star
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 52% and Over 2.5 at 48%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Guingamp matches produced 3.0 goals on average over their last 5, Red Star matches 2.2. Both teams to score comes in at 54%, no goal for at least one side at 46%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Guingamp defense pulls toward Under by 1.0 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Guingamp
Corners in last 5 matches
Red Star
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.4 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 53%, which leaves 47% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Guingamp
Shots in last 5 matches
Red Star
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 25.0 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 24. The chance of 25 shots or fewer is 55%, which leaves 45% for 26 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Guingamp wins by X goals. Negative = Red Star wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Guingamp vs Red Star with expected spread of -0.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Guingamp vs Red Star
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.2 goals in favour of Red Star. The spread model gives 20% to a Guingamp win by two goals or more and 47% to any Red Star win. A Red Star win by 1 is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Guingamp win (36%), Under 2.5 (52%), Goal (54%). Expected totals: 9.4 corners and 25.0 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel