Red Star
Ligue 2 · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #6 of 18 in Ligue 2 56 pts · 15W–11D–8L · GD +8
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Ligue 2 simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Red Star?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 28 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Red Star's results were 3.2% easier to call than the Ligue 2 average. How this is measured.
| Market | Red Star | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 42.9% | 41.5% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 50.0% | 51.9% |
| Both teams to score | 46.4% | 47.7% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Ligue 2 | #6 | 1502 | 1593 | 1557 |
| 2024-25 | Ligue 2 | #16 | 1397 | 1487 | 1450 |
| 2018-19 | Ligue 2 | #19 | 1466 | 1466 | 1386 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 09, 2026 | vs Montpellier | W Red Star 37.8% · draw 31.4% | D ✗ |
| May 02, 2026 | at Amiens | W Red Star 47.6% · draw 25.8% | W ✓ |
| Apr 24, 2026 | vs Guingamp | W Red Star 40.3% · draw 30.4% | W ✓ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | at Reims | L Red Star 21.9% · draw 28.4% | L ✓ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs Bastia | W Red Star 50.5% · draw 27.4% | W ✓ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | vs Laval | W Red Star 60.5% · draw 23.9% | D ✗ |
| Mar 20, 2026 | at Clermont | L Red Star 34.1% · draw 31.6% | W ✗ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vs Dunkerque | W Red Star 38.8% · draw 31.4% | W ✓ |
| Mar 07, 2026 | at Saint-Étienne | L Red Star 22.9% · draw 28.6% | L ✓ |
| Feb 28, 2026 | vs Le Mans | W Red Star 41.8% · draw 30.2% | D ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Ligue 2 title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/red-star">Ligue 2 title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/red-star">Ligue 2 title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>