Red Star

Ligue 2 · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1615 · #2 Ligue 2 5W-2D-1L · 17 pts In line Updated Oct 12, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #2 of 18 57.6 expected pts · currently 17 pts after 8 matches

League title 17.6%
Promotion 38.7%
Automatic promotion 38.7%
Promotion barrage 40.5%
Relegation barrage 0.1%
Relegation 0.0%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full Ligue 2 simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Red Star?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 28 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Red Star's results were 3.2% easier to call than the Ligue 2 average. How this is measured.

MarketRed StarLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 42.9% 41.5%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 50.0% 51.9%
Both teams to score 46.4% 47.7%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 Ligue 2 #2 1571 1615 1615
2025-26 Ligue 2 #6 1502 1593 1557
2024-25 Ligue 2 #16 1397 1487 1450
2018-19 Ligue 2 #19 1466 1466 1386

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 10, 2026 at Clermont L Red Star 34.5% · draw 31.0% W ✗
Sep 19, 2026 at Guingamp L Red Star 32.3% · draw 31.4% W ✗
Sep 14, 2026 vs Metz W Red Star 36.5% · draw 31.0% W ✓

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

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Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/red-star">Ligue 2 title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)

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