Ligue 2 2026-2027: Nancy vs Guingamp Prediction - 9 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Nancy

Home Team
39%
VS

Guingamp

Away Team
29%
Draw: 32%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Corners: 8.8
Expected Shots: 26.4
Expected Spread: +0.1

Why the Model Leans Nancy

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Nancy
Results & dominance +2.8 Guingamp
Defense +1.3 Nancy
Attack +1.0 Guingamp
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +0.8 Guingamp

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 57% for Nancy. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Nancy defense +3.1 Under
League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Nancy attack & chance creation +1.2 Under
Guingamp defense +0.7 Over
Guingamp attack & chance creation +0.6 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 54% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 St Etienne 7 5 1 1 19 8 11 16
2 Red Star 7 4 2 1 9 7 2 14
3 Reims 7 3 4 0 15 9 6 13
4 Montpellier 7 3 3 1 6 5 1 12
5 Metz 7 2 4 1 10 7 3 10
6 Nancy 7 3 1 3 8 7 1 10
7 Annecy 7 3 1 3 9 9 0 10
8 Sochaux 7 2 4 1 4 5 -1 10
9 Dijon 7 2 3 2 10 10 0 9
10 Pau FC 7 2 2 3 6 6 0 8
11 Dunkerque 7 2 2 3 10 12 -2 8
12 Guingamp 7 2 2 3 10 12 -2 8
13 Grenoble 7 2 2 3 8 11 -3 8
14 Rodez 7 2 1 4 14 16 -2 7
15 Nantes 7 2 1 4 9 13 -4 7
16 Clermont 7 0 6 1 4 6 -2 6
17 Boulogne 7 0 5 2 3 5 -2 5
18 Laval 7 1 2 4 8 14 -6 5

Recent Trends

Nancy W L L W W

  • Last Match: W vs Rodez (Goals: 4 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Reims (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Nantes (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Dunkerque (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Pau FC (Goals: 1 - 0)

Guingamp L W D D L

  • Last Match: L vs Red Star (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Annecy (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Reims (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Nantes (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Sochaux (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Nancy

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.00
Clean Sheets 2

Guingamp

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.67
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Nancy a 39% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 32% and Guingamp at 29%. This is a tight call, with Nancy only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 54% and sees both teams scoring in 54% of cases.

Match Analysis

Nancy arrive with 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (WLLWW from most recent), scoring 8 and conceding 6 with 2 clean sheets. Guingamp arrive with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (LWDDL from most recent), scoring 8 and conceding 10 with 0 clean sheets. In the table Nancy sit 6th with 10 points from 7 games and a goal difference of +1, while Guingamp are 12th with 8 points and a goal difference of -2. That puts Nancy 2 points clear of their opponent. Nancy average 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over their last five home games, while Guingamp average 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Nancy), results & dominance (2.8 points toward Guingamp), defense (1.3 points toward Nancy). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Nancy
Goals in last 5 matches
Guingamp
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 54% and Over 2.5 at 46%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Nancy matches produced 2.8 goals on average over their last 5, Guingamp matches 3.6. Both teams to score comes in at 54%, no goal for at least one side at 46%. In the model's own attribution, Nancy defense pulls toward Under by 3.1 points and league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Nancy
Corners in last 5 matches
Guingamp
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 8.8 corners in total. The single most likely count is 8. The chance of 8 corners or fewer is 48%, which leaves 52% for 9 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Nancy
Shots in last 5 matches
Guingamp
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 26.4 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 26. The chance of 26 shots or fewer is 52%, which leaves 48% for 27 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Nancy wins by X goals. Negative = Guingamp wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Nancy vs Guingamp with expected spread of +0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Nancy vs Guingamp
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.1 goals in favour of Nancy. The spread model gives 24% to a Nancy win by two goals or more and 42% to any Guingamp win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Nancy win (39%), Under 2.5 (54%), Goal (54%). Expected totals: 8.8 corners and 26.4 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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