Nancy

Ligue 2 · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1500 · #9 Ligue 2 4W-1D-3L · 13 pts In line Updated Oct 12, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #8 of 18 47.7 expected pts · currently 13 pts after 8 matches

League title 1.0%
Promotion 4.3%
Automatic promotion 4.3%
Promotion barrage 20.6%
Relegation barrage 2.0%
Relegation 1.8%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full Ligue 2 simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Nancy?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 29 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Nancy's results were 6.2% harder to call than the Ligue 2 average. How this is measured.

MarketNancyLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 34.5% 41.5%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 48.3% 51.9%
Both teams to score 44.8% 47.7%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 Ligue 2 #9 1454 1500 1500
2025-26 Ligue 2 #12 1502 1551 1447
2021-22 Ligue 2 #20 1490 1490 1326
2020-21 Ligue 2 #9 1456 1559 1509
2019-20 Ligue 2 #15 1502 1562 1464
2018-19 Ligue 2 #8 1411 1538 1506
2017-18 Ligue 2 #16 1480 1511 1423
2016-17 Ligue 1 #20 1466 1500 1369

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 09, 2026 vs Guingamp W Nancy 39.2% · draw 31.5% W ✓
Sep 18, 2026 at Rodez L Nancy 29.1% · draw 30.4% W ✗
Sep 11, 2026 vs Reims L Nancy 31.6% · draw 30.0% L ✓

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