Ligue 2 2026-2027: Nancy vs Reims Prediction - 11 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Nancy

Home Team
32%
VS

Reims

Away Team
38%
Draw: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
Under 2.5: 56%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 8.6
Expected Shots: 23.2
Expected Spread: -0.3

Why the Model Leans Reims

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Nancy
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +8.2 Reims
Results & dominance +4.8 Reims
Attack +2.3 Reims
Defense +2.0 Reims

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 55% for Reims. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Nancy defense +2.1 Under
Nancy attack & chance creation +1.7 Under
Reims attack & chance creation +1.5 Under
Rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) +1.1 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 56% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 St Etienne 5 5 0 0 16 4 12 15
2 Annecy 5 3 1 1 7 5 2 10
3 Reims 5 2 3 0 12 7 5 9
4 Metz 5 2 3 0 8 4 4 9
5 Montpellier 5 2 2 1 4 4 0 8
6 Red Star 5 2 2 1 5 6 -1 8
7 Nancy 5 2 1 2 3 2 1 7
8 Rodez 5 2 1 2 11 11 0 7
9 Sochaux 5 1 3 1 2 4 -2 6
10 Dunkerque 5 1 2 2 8 9 -1 5
11 Guingamp 5 1 2 2 7 8 -1 5
12 Pau FC 5 1 2 2 4 5 -1 5
13 Boulogne 5 0 4 1 2 3 -1 4
14 Clermont 5 0 4 1 3 5 -2 4
15 Nantes 5 1 1 3 7 11 -4 4
16 Grenoble 5 1 1 3 6 10 -4 4
17 Laval 5 1 1 3 5 10 -5 4
18 Dijon 5 0 3 2 5 7 -2 3

Recent Trends

Nancy L W W L D

  • Last Match: L vs Nantes (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Dunkerque (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Pau FC (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Montpellier (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Boulogne (Goals: 0 - 0)

Reims D W W D D

  • Last Match: D vs Guingamp (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Red Star (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Annecy (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Dunkerque (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Clermont (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Nancy

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, home) 0.50
Clean Sheets 3

Reims

Goals scored (avg, away) 2.00
Goals conceded (avg, away) 0.50
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Nancy a 32% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 30% and Reims at 38%. This is a tight call, with Reims only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 56% and sees both teams scoring in 50% of cases.

Match Analysis

Nancy arrive with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (LWWLD from most recent), scoring 3 and conceding 2 with 3 clean sheets. Reims arrive with 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats from their last 5 league games (DWWDD from most recent), scoring 12 and conceding 7 with 1 clean sheet. In the table Nancy sit 7th with 7 points from 5 games and a goal difference of +1, while Reims are 3rd with 9 points and a goal difference of +5. That puts Reims 2 points clear of their opponent. Nancy average 1.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over their last five home games, while Reims average 2.0 scored and 0.5 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Nancy), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (8.2 points toward Reims), results & dominance (4.8 points toward Reims). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Nancy
Goals in last 5 matches
Reims
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 56% and Over 2.5 at 44%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Nancy matches produced 1.0 goals on average over their last 5, Reims matches 3.8. Both teams to score comes in at 50%, no goal for at least one side at 50%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Nancy defense pulls toward Under by 2.1 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Nancy
Corners in last 5 matches
Reims
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 8.6 corners in total. The single most likely count is 8. The chance of 8 corners or fewer is 51%, which leaves 49% for 9 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Nancy
Shots in last 5 matches
Reims
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 23.2 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 23. The chance of 23 shots or fewer is 54%, which leaves 46% for 24 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Nancy wins by X goals. Negative = Reims wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Nancy vs Reims with expected spread of -0.3
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Nancy vs Reims
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.3 goals in favour of Reims. The spread model gives 19% to a Nancy win by two goals or more and 49% to any Reims win. A Reims win by 1 is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Reims win (38%), Under 2.5 (56%), Goal (50%). Expected totals: 8.6 corners and 23.2 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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