Ligue 2 2026-2027: Nantes vs Reims Prediction - 10 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Nantes

Home Team
39%
VS

Reims

Away Team
31%
Draw: 31%
Over 2.5: 43%
Under 2.5: 57%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 8.9
Expected Shots: 22.6
Expected Spread: +0.1

Why the Model Leans Nantes

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Nantes
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +8.9 Reims
Attack +2.0 Nantes
Results & dominance +0.8 Nantes

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 56% for Nantes. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Nantes defense +2.5 Under
Nantes attack & chance creation +1.9 Under
Reims attack & chance creation +1.3 Under
Form & results +0.9 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 57% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 St Etienne 7 5 1 1 19 8 11 16
2 Red Star 7 4 2 1 9 7 2 14
3 Reims 7 3 4 0 15 9 6 13
4 Montpellier 7 3 3 1 6 5 1 12
5 Metz 7 2 4 1 10 7 3 10
6 Nancy 7 3 1 3 8 7 1 10
7 Annecy 7 3 1 3 9 9 0 10
8 Sochaux 7 2 4 1 4 5 -1 10
9 Dijon 7 2 3 2 10 10 0 9
10 Pau FC 7 2 2 3 6 6 0 8
11 Dunkerque 7 2 2 3 10 12 -2 8
12 Guingamp 7 2 2 3 10 12 -2 8
13 Grenoble 7 2 2 3 8 11 -3 8
14 Rodez 7 2 1 4 14 16 -2 7
15 Nantes 7 2 1 4 9 13 -4 7
16 Clermont 7 0 6 1 4 6 -2 6
17 Boulogne 7 0 5 2 3 5 -2 5
18 Laval 7 1 2 4 8 14 -6 5

Recent Trends

Nantes W L W D L

  • Last Match: W vs Boulogne (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Sochaux (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Nancy (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Guingamp (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Rodez (Goals: 2 - 5)

Reims D W D W W

  • Last Match: D vs Montpellier (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Nancy (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Guingamp (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Red Star (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Annecy (Goals: 3 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Nantes

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, home) 2.00
Clean Sheets 1

Reims

Goals scored (avg, away) 2.00
Goals conceded (avg, away) 0.67
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Nantes a 39% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 31% and Reims at 31%. This is a tight call, with Nantes only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 57% and sees both teams scoring in 53% of cases.

Match Analysis

Nantes arrive with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (WLWDL from most recent), scoring 8 and conceding 10 with 1 clean sheet. Reims arrive with 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats from their last 5 league games (DWDWW from most recent), scoring 12 and conceding 6 with 0 clean sheets. In the table Nantes sit 15th with 7 points from 7 games and a goal difference of -4, while Reims are 3rd with 13 points and a goal difference of +6. That puts Reims 6 points clear of their opponent. Nantes average 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over their last five home games, while Reims average 2.0 scored and 0.7 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Nantes), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (8.9 points toward Reims), attack (2.0 points toward Nantes). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Nantes
Goals in last 5 matches
Reims
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 57% and Over 2.5 at 43%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Nantes matches produced 3.6 goals on average over their last 5, Reims matches 3.6. Both teams to score comes in at 53%, no goal for at least one side at 47%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Nantes defense pulls toward Under by 2.5 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Nantes
Corners in last 5 matches
Reims
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 8.9 corners in total. The single most likely count is 8. The chance of 8 corners or fewer is 47%, which leaves 53% for 9 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Nantes
Shots in last 5 matches
Reims
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 22.6 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 22. The chance of 22 shots or fewer is 50%, which leaves 50% for 23 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Nantes wins by X goals. Negative = Reims wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Nantes vs Reims with expected spread of +0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Nantes vs Reims
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.1 goals in favour of Nantes. The spread model gives 24% to a Nantes win by two goals or more and 42% to any Reims win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Nantes win (39%), Under 2.5 (57%), Goal (53%). Expected totals: 8.9 corners and 22.6 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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