Nantes
Ligue 1 · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 season forecast
Projected: #17 of 18 24.2 expected pts · currently 23 pts after 33 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.
Full Ligue 1 simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Nantes?
Sample still small 2025-26 · 12 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Nantes's results were 21.9% harder to call than the Ligue 1 average. How this is measured.
| Market | Nantes | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 41.7% | 47.2% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 50.0% | 55.7% |
| Both teams to score | 58.3% | 48.6% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Ligue 1 | #17 | 1471 | 1478 | 1366 |
| 2024-25 | Ligue 1 | #14 | 1502 | 1552 | 1432 |
| 2023-24 | Ligue 1 | #14 | 1471 | 1534 | 1385 |
| 2022-23 | Ligue 1 | #17 | 1501 | 1517 | 1375 |
| 2021-22 | Ligue 1 | #10 | 1502 | 1571 | 1525 |
| 2020-21 | Ligue 1 | #12 | 1502 | 1522 | 1474 |
| 2019-20 | Ligue 1 | #15 | 1482 | 1579 | 1462 |
| 2018-19 | Ligue 1 | #11 | 1467 | 1550 | 1511 |
| 2017-18 | Ligue 1 | #12 | 1478 | 1579 | 1462 |
| 2016-17 | Ligue 1 | #7 | 1529 | 1544 | 1512 |
| 2015-16 | Ligue 1 | #18 | 1518 | 1550 | 1428 |
| 2014-15 | Ligue 1 | #17 | 1518 | 1567 | 1410 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 04, 2026 | at Marseille | L Nantes 0.4% · draw 0.8% | W ✗ |
| Dec 12, 2025 | at Angers | L Nantes 17.2% · draw 18.4% | L ✓ |
| Dec 06, 2025 | vs Lens | L Nantes 3.5% · draw 4.6% | L ✓ |
| Nov 30, 2025 | at Lyon | L Nantes 5.2% · draw 6.8% | L ✓ |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vs Lorient | L Nantes 29.6% · draw 20.7% | D ✗ |
| Nov 08, 2025 | at Le Havre | L Nantes 12.9% · draw 15.2% | D ✗ |
| Nov 02, 2025 | vs Metz | W Nantes 68.9% · draw 15.5% | L ✗ |
| Oct 29, 2025 | vs Monaco | L Nantes 4.2% · draw 5.1% | L ✓ |
| Oct 24, 2025 | at Paris FC | L Nantes 4.8% · draw 6.4% | W ✗ |
| Oct 19, 2025 | vs Lille | L Nantes 9.2% · draw 9.1% | L ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Ligue 1 title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/nantes">Ligue 1 title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
<iframe src="https://www.predixsport.com/embed/title-odds/ligue_1"
width="360" height="430" style="border:0;border-radius:10px" loading="lazy"
title="Ligue 1 title odds & club ELO ratings — Predixsport"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/nantes">Ligue 1 title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>