Nantes

Ligue 2 · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1471 · #11 Ligue 2 2W-2D-4L · 8 pts Updated Oct 12, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #13 of 18 40.3 expected pts · currently 8 pts after 8 matches

League title 0.1%
Promotion 0.3%
Automatic promotion 0.3%
Promotion barrage 3.6%
Relegation barrage 9.5%
Relegation 15.4%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full Ligue 2 simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Nantes?

Sample still small 2026-27 · 3 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Nantes's results were 9.8% harder to call than the Ligue 2 average. How this is measured.

MarketNantesLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 33.3% 40.7%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 66.7% 44.4%
Both teams to score 33.3% 48.1%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 Ligue 2 #11 1475 1475 1471
2025-26 Ligue 1 #17 1471 1478 1366
2024-25 Ligue 1 #14 1502 1552 1432
2023-24 Ligue 1 #14 1471 1534 1385
2022-23 Ligue 1 #17 1501 1517 1375
2021-22 Ligue 1 #10 1502 1571 1525
2020-21 Ligue 1 #12 1502 1522 1474
2019-20 Ligue 1 #15 1482 1579 1462
2018-19 Ligue 1 #11 1467 1550 1511
2017-18 Ligue 1 #12 1478 1579 1462
2016-17 Ligue 1 #7 1529 1544 1512
2015-16 Ligue 1 #18 1518 1550 1428
2014-15 Ligue 1 #17 1518 1567 1410

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 10, 2026 vs Reims W Nantes 38.9% · draw 30.6% D ✗
Sep 19, 2026 at Boulogne W Nantes 37.9% · draw 30.2% W ✓
Sep 12, 2026 at Sochaux W Nantes 43.5% · draw 27.9% L ✗

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