Premier League 2025-2026: Sunderland vs Nott'm Forest Prediction - 24 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Sunderland

Home Team
38%
VS

Nott'm Forest

Away Team
36%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 23.4
Expected Spread: +0.0

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Man City 33 21 7 5 66 29 37 70
2 Arsenal 33 21 7 5 63 26 37 70
3 Man United 33 16 10 7 58 45 13 58
4 Aston Villa 33 17 7 9 47 41 6 58
5 Liverpool 33 16 7 10 54 43 11 55
6 Brighton 34 13 11 10 48 39 9 50
7 Bournemouth 34 11 16 7 52 52 0 49
8 Chelsea 34 13 9 12 53 45 8 48
9 Brentford 33 13 9 11 48 44 4 48
10 Everton 33 13 8 12 40 39 1 47
11 Sunderland 33 12 10 11 36 40 -4 46
12 Fulham 33 13 6 14 43 46 -3 45
13 Crystal Palace 32 11 10 11 35 36 -1 43
14 Newcastle 33 12 6 15 46 49 -3 42
15 Leeds 34 9 13 12 44 51 -7 40
16 Nott'm Forest 33 9 9 15 36 45 -9 36
17 West Ham 33 8 9 16 40 57 -17 33
18 Tottenham 33 7 10 16 42 53 -11 31
19 Burnley 34 4 8 22 34 68 -34 20
20 Wolves 33 3 8 22 24 61 -37 17

Recent Trends

Sunderland L W W L W

  • Last Match: L vs Aston Villa (Goals: 3 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Tottenham (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Newcastle (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Brighton (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Leeds (Goals: 1 - 0)

Nott'm Forest W D W D D

  • Last Match: W vs Burnley (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Aston Villa (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Tottenham (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Fulham (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Man City (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Sunderland

xG (avg) 1.36
xGA (avg) 1.51
Clean Sheets 2

Nott'm Forest

xG (avg) 1.33
xGA (avg) 2.19
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Sunderland are marginally favoured at the Stadium of Light, with a 38.0% chance of victory against Nott’m Forest’s 36.0%, and a 26.0% probability of a draw; the model leans to a home win despite the slim gap. The over/under 2.5 goals call is tighter, but the under 2.5 prediction edges it at 52.0% implied (48.0% for over), suggesting a relatively cagey affair. In the table, Sunderland sit 11th on 46 points, while Forest are 16th on 36, still close enough to the bottom three to feel the pressure.

Match Analysis

Sunderland come in off an eventful run: a 4-3 defeat at Aston Villa, followed by a gritty 1-0 home win over Tottenham and a 2-1 derby victory at Newcastle. That mix of high-scoring chaos and tight, determined wins underlines a side that can adapt game to game but still concedes chances. Over the last five matches they’ve averaged 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded, with xG at 1.356 for and 1.506 against, plus two clean sheets – a profile of a mid-table side that keeps games relatively tight, but often playing on a knife-edge. Forest’s recent form has been more eye-catching. A 4-1 demolition of Burnley and a 3-0 away win at Tottenham sandwich a solid 1-1 draw with Aston Villa, hinting at a team hitting stride at the right moment. Over their last five, they’ve averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, with xG of 1.332 for and a worrying 2.186 against. That tells its own story: Forest are clinical going forward and have managed two clean sheets, but they allow plenty of opportunities and are relying on finishing and goalkeeping to cover defensive cracks.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Sunderland
Goals in last 5 matches
Nott'm Forest
Goals in last 5 matches
The model sides with under 2.5 as its over 2.5 prediction alternative is slightly weaker, despite Sunderland’s recent fireworks at Villa. Two of Sunderland’s last three matches have actually gone over 2.5 goals (4-3 vs Villa, 2-1 vs Newcastle), with only the 1-0 win against Spurs landing under. Forest are the reverse: two of their last three went over (4-1 vs Burnley, 3-0 vs Spurs), while the Villa draw finished under at 1-1. With Sunderland averaging 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded, and Forest at 1.8 for and 1.4 against, the xG figures (1.356 vs 1.332 in attack) suggest chances, but the under 2.5 call leans on Sunderland’s generally conservative scorelines outside the odd outlier.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Sunderland
Corners in last 5 matches
Nott'm Forest
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a medium total: 9.65 expected total corners in the match. Sunderland’s last three have produced 9, 8 and 14 corners respectively, while Forest’s have seen 8, 10 and 16, showing both sides can be involved in games where wide play and blocked shots add up. With neither team a relentless crossing machine but both capable of spells of pressure, the predicted corners figure fits two balanced, mid-table Premier League outfits rather than end-to-end corner fests.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Sunderland
Shots in last 5 matches
Nott'm Forest
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 23.39, consistent with a competitive but not wild encounter. Sunderland’s last three games have seen combined shot counts of 25 (at Villa), 24 (vs Spurs) and 33 (at Newcastle), while Forest’s have produced 14 (vs Burnley), 27 (vs Villa) and 22 (at Spurs). This shots prediction tallies with the xG numbers: both teams usually generate around 1.3 xG per match, implying a decent volume of efforts but not an all-out shooting gallery.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Sunderland wins by X goals. Negative = Nott'm Forest wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Sunderland vs Nott'm Forest with expected spread of +0.0
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Sunderland vs Nott'm Forest
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is essentially even, with an expected spread of +0.03 in Sunderland’s favour – effectively calling this a toss-up with the slightest tilt towards the hosts. Recently, Sunderland’s goal differences have been -1, +1 and +1; Forest’s +3, 0 and +3, suggesting Forest have been more explosive in the short term. Yet the expected spread and the win probabilities still edge to Sunderland, reflecting their home advantage and slightly more stable defensive record compared to Forest’s high-risk, high-reward approach.

Final Prediction

Sunderland’s edge rests on home advantage and a more balanced defensive profile, even if Forest arrive as the more explosive attacking side. The key battle to watch will be Forest’s sharp forward play against Sunderland’s back line; if Sunderland can limit high-quality chances, their slight statistical edge and the tight expected spread could be just enough to tilt a narrow home win.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel