Newcastle
Premier League · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #12 of 20 48.1 expected pts · currently 8 pts after 6 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full Premier League simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #12 of 20 in Premier League 49 pts · 14W-7D-17L · GD -2
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Premier League simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Newcastle?
Chaos club 2025-26 · 28 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Newcastle's results were 11.6% harder to call than the Premier League average. How this is measured.
| Market | Newcastle | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 46.4% | 50.5% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 64.3% | 52.7% |
| Both teams to score | 75.0% | 52.7% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Premier League | #10 | 1498 | 1529 | 1494 |
| 2025-26 | Premier League | #10 | 1502 | 1538 | 1496 |
| 2024-25 | Premier League | #9 | 1518 | 1615 | 1562 |
| 2023-24 | Premier League | #6 | 1523 | 1574 | 1560 |
| 2022-23 | Premier League | #5 | 1520 | 1665 | 1618 |
| 2021-22 | Premier League | #6 | 1467 | 1572 | 1572 |
| 2020-21 | Premier League | #11 | 1533 | 1533 | 1497 |
| 2019-20 | Premier League | #15 | 1471 | 1536 | 1433 |
| 2018-19 | Premier League | #10 | 1471 | 1517 | 1517 |
| 2017-18 | Premier League | #10 | 1467 | 1540 | 1478 |
| 2016-17 | Championship | #2 | 1662 | 1747 | 1654 |
| 2015-16 | Premier League | #13 | 1498 | 1498 | 1461 |
| 2014-15 | Premier League | #21 | 1467 | 1565 | 1363 |
| 2009-10 | Championship | #1 | 1506 | 1752 | 1752 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
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