Newcastle

Premier League · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1496 · #10 Premier League In line Updated May 18, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #11 of 20 49.5 expected pts · pre-season forecast

League title 1.1%
Champions League 10.0%
Europa League 9.4%
Relegation 15.7%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.

Full Premier League simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Newcastle?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 32 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Newcastle's results were 0.3% harder to call than the Premier League average. How this is measured.

MarketNewcastleLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 53.1% 47.8%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 65.6% 52.8%
Both teams to score 71.9% 53.5%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2025-26 Premier League #10 1502 1538 1496
2024-25 Premier League #9 1518 1615 1562
2023-24 Premier League #6 1523 1574 1560
2022-23 Premier League #5 1520 1665 1618
2021-22 Premier League #6 1467 1572 1572
2020-21 Premier League #11 1533 1533 1497
2019-20 Premier League #15 1471 1536 1433
2018-19 Premier League #10 1471 1517 1517
2017-18 Premier League #10 1467 1540 1478
2016-17 Championship #2 1662 1747 1654
2015-16 Premier League #13 1498 1498 1461
2014-15 Premier League #21 1467 1565 1363
2009-10 Championship #1 1506 1752 1752

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches — model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 17, 2026 vs West Ham W Newcastle 58.8% · draw 20.6% W ✓
May 10, 2026 at Nottingham Forest L Newcastle 24.3% · draw 23.1% D ✗
May 02, 2026 vs Brighton W Newcastle 45.3% · draw 25.0% W ✓
Apr 25, 2026 at Arsenal L Newcastle 16.0% · draw 17.1% L ✓
Apr 18, 2026 vs Bournemouth W Newcastle 54.0% · draw 22.5% L ✗
Apr 12, 2026 at Crystal Palace L Newcastle 33.4% · draw 24.6% L ✓
Mar 22, 2026 vs Sunderland W Newcastle 63.4% · draw 18.6% L ✗
Mar 14, 2026 at Chelsea L Newcastle 19.3% · draw 19.6% W ✗
Mar 04, 2026 vs Manchester United W Newcastle 43.4% · draw 25.3% W ✓
Feb 28, 2026 vs Everton W Newcastle 50.6% · draw 23.7% L ✗

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