Aston Villa
Premier League · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Champions League 2026-27
#8 in the title oddsTop 24 counts every league-phase finish inside the knockout places, so the eight clubs that skip the play-off round are in it too. Top 8 is the separate direct route to the last 16. Points and finish are league-phase numbers, conditional on playing it.
10,000 simulated seasons · updated Sep 04, 2026.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #17 of 20 40.7 expected pts · currently 0 pts after 2 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full Premier League simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #4 of 20 in Premier League 65 pts · 19W-8D-11L · GD +7
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Premier League simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Aston Villa?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 32 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Aston Villa's results were 0.3% harder to call than the Premier League average. How this is measured.
| Market | Aston Villa | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 46.9% | 47.8% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 43.8% | 52.8% |
| Both teams to score | 56.2% | 53.5% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Premier League | #18 | 1477 | 1477 | 1452 |
| 2025-26 | Premier League | #11 | 1498 | 1672 | 1495 |
| 2024-25 | Premier League | #5 | 1529 | 1642 | 1598 |
| 2023-24 | Premier League | #7 | 1477 | 1658 | 1549 |
| 2022-23 | Premier League | #6 | 1480 | 1615 | 1600 |
| 2021-22 | Premier League | #13 | 1482 | 1549 | 1468 |
| 2020-21 | Premier League | #10 | 1515 | 1597 | 1520 |
| 2019-20 | Premier League | #16 | 1480 | 1501 | 1419 |
| 2018-19 | Championship | #3 | 1602 | 1679 | 1648 |
| 2017-18 | Championship | #6 | 1495 | 1685 | 1599 |
| 2016-17 | Championship | #12 | 1486 | 1555 | 1494 |
| 2015-16 | Premier League | #20 | 1529 | 1529 | 1257 |
| 2014-15 | Premier League | #17 | 1529 | 1571 | 1402 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2026 | vs Liverpool | W Aston Villa 39.3% · draw 24.4% | W ✓ |
| May 10, 2026 | at Burnley | W Aston Villa 62.0% · draw 18.4% | D ✗ |
| May 03, 2026 | vs Tottenham | W Aston Villa 52.7% · draw 23.0% | L ✗ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | at Fulham | L Aston Villa 33.3% · draw 25.0% | L ✓ |
| Apr 19, 2026 | vs Sunderland | W Aston Villa 63.7% · draw 18.5% | W ✓ |
| Apr 12, 2026 | at Nottingham Forest | L Aston Villa 32.8% · draw 25.0% | D ✗ |
| Mar 22, 2026 | vs West Ham | W Aston Villa 65.2% · draw 17.9% | W ✓ |
| Mar 15, 2026 | at Manchester United | L Aston Villa 19.0% · draw 19.4% | L ✓ |
| Mar 04, 2026 | vs Chelsea | L Aston Villa 30.2% · draw 24.7% | L ✓ |
| Feb 27, 2026 | at Wolves | W Aston Villa 45.2% · draw 24.2% | L ✗ |
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
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