Aston Villa
Premier League · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Champions League 2026-27
#7 in the title oddsTop 24 counts every league-phase finish inside the knockout places, so the eight clubs that skip the play-off round are in it too. Top 8 is the separate direct route to the last 16. Points and finish are league-phase numbers, conditional on playing it.
10,000 simulated seasons · updated Oct 20, 2026.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #16 of 20 42.8 expected pts · currently 5 pts after 6 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full Premier League simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #4 of 20 in Premier League 65 pts · 19W-8D-11L · GD +7
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Premier League simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Aston Villa?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 28 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Aston Villa's results were 9.5% harder to call than the Premier League average. How this is measured.
| Market | Aston Villa | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 39.3% | 50.5% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 46.4% | 52.7% |
| Both teams to score | 57.1% | 52.7% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Premier League | #15 | 1477 | 1477 | 1462 |
| 2025-26 | Premier League | #11 | 1498 | 1672 | 1495 |
| 2024-25 | Premier League | #5 | 1529 | 1642 | 1598 |
| 2023-24 | Premier League | #7 | 1477 | 1658 | 1549 |
| 2022-23 | Premier League | #6 | 1480 | 1615 | 1600 |
| 2021-22 | Premier League | #13 | 1482 | 1549 | 1468 |
| 2020-21 | Premier League | #10 | 1515 | 1597 | 1520 |
| 2019-20 | Premier League | #16 | 1480 | 1501 | 1419 |
| 2018-19 | Championship | #3 | 1602 | 1679 | 1648 |
| 2017-18 | Championship | #6 | 1495 | 1685 | 1599 |
| 2016-17 | Championship | #12 | 1486 | 1555 | 1494 |
| 2015-16 | Premier League | #20 | 1529 | 1529 | 1257 |
| 2014-15 | Premier League | #17 | 1529 | 1571 | 1402 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
The Premier League title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0. Attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/aston-villa">Premier League title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
<iframe src="https://www.predixsport.com/embed/title-odds/premier_league"
width="360" height="430" style="border:0;border-radius:10px" loading="lazy"
title="Premier League title odds & club ELO ratings · Predixsport"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/aston-villa">Premier League title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>