Aston Villa

Premier League · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1495 · #11 Premier League In line Updated May 18, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #13 of 20 48.4 expected pts · pre-season forecast

League title 0.8%
Champions League 8.3%
Europa League 8.1%
Relegation 17.8%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.

Full Premier League simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Aston Villa?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 32 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Aston Villa's results were 0.3% harder to call than the Premier League average. How this is measured.

MarketAston VillaLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 46.9% 47.8%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 43.8% 52.8%
Both teams to score 56.2% 53.5%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2025-26 Premier League #11 1498 1672 1495
2024-25 Premier League #5 1529 1642 1598
2023-24 Premier League #7 1477 1658 1549
2022-23 Premier League #6 1480 1615 1600
2021-22 Premier League #13 1482 1549 1468
2020-21 Premier League #10 1515 1597 1520
2019-20 Premier League #16 1480 1501 1419
2018-19 Championship #3 1602 1679 1648
2017-18 Championship #6 1495 1685 1599
2016-17 Championship #12 1486 1555 1494
2015-16 Premier League #20 1529 1529 1257
2014-15 Premier League #17 1529 1571 1402

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches — model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 15, 2026 vs Liverpool W Aston Villa 39.3% · draw 24.4% W ✓
May 10, 2026 at Burnley W Aston Villa 62.0% · draw 18.4% D ✗
May 03, 2026 vs Tottenham W Aston Villa 52.7% · draw 23.0% L ✗
Apr 25, 2026 at Fulham L Aston Villa 33.3% · draw 25.0% L ✓
Apr 19, 2026 vs Sunderland W Aston Villa 63.7% · draw 18.5% W ✓
Apr 12, 2026 at Nottingham Forest L Aston Villa 32.8% · draw 25.0% D ✗
Mar 22, 2026 vs West Ham W Aston Villa 65.2% · draw 17.9% W ✓
Mar 15, 2026 at Manchester United L Aston Villa 19.0% · draw 19.4% L ✓
Mar 04, 2026 vs Chelsea L Aston Villa 30.2% · draw 24.7% L ✓
Feb 27, 2026 at Wolves W Aston Villa 45.2% · draw 24.2% L ✗

Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0

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