Nottingham Forest
Premier League · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #7 of 20 53.5 expected pts · pre-season forecast
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.
Full Premier League simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #16 of 20 in Premier League 44 pts · 11W–11D–16L · GD -3
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Premier League simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Nottingham Forest?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 32 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Nottingham Forest's results were 2.2% harder to call than the Premier League average. How this is measured.
| Market | Nottingham Forest | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 43.8% | 47.8% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 31.2% | 52.8% |
| Both teams to score | 50.0% | 53.5% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Premier League | #9 | 1520 | 1528 | 1512 |
| 2024-25 | Premier League | #11 | 1498 | 1633 | 1520 |
| 2023-24 | Premier League | #16 | 1482 | 1512 | 1422 |
| 2022-23 | Premier League | #12 | 1480 | 1497 | 1448 |
| 2021-22 | Championship | #2 | 1458 | 1677 | 1649 |
| 2020-21 | Championship | #16 | 1452 | 1546 | 1468 |
| 2019-20 | Championship | #15 | 1465 | 1606 | 1467 |
| 2018-19 | Championship | #17 | 1443 | 1585 | 1485 |
| 2017-18 | Championship | #19 | 1479 | 1513 | 1425 |
| 2016-17 | Championship | #18 | 1489 | 1528 | 1456 |
| 2015-16 | Championship | #18 | 1431 | 1578 | 1461 |
| 2014-15 | Championship | #19 | 1467 | 1570 | 1437 |
| 2013-14 | Championship | #17 | 1516 | 1635 | 1441 |
| 2012-13 | Championship | #15 | 1496 | 1586 | 1498 |
| 2011-12 | Championship | #16 | 1551 | 1551 | 1474 |
| 2010-11 | Championship | #7 | 1541 | 1663 | 1571 |
| 2009-10 | Championship | #6 | 1522 | 1693 | 1572 |
| 2008-09 | Championship | #11 | 1504 | 1522 | 1522 |
| 2007-08 | League One | #1 | 1566 | 1658 | 1658 |
| 2006-07 | League One | #4 | 1595 | 1653 | 1591 |
| 2005-06 | League One | #6 | 1518 | 1614 | 1572 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | at Manchester United | L Nottingham Forest 18.9% · draw 19.4% | L ✓ |
| May 10, 2026 | vs Newcastle | W Nottingham Forest 52.6% · draw 23.1% | D ✗ |
| May 04, 2026 | at Chelsea | L Nottingham Forest 24.9% · draw 23.4% | W ✗ |
| Apr 24, 2026 | at Sunderland | L Nottingham Forest 35.7% · draw 26.3% | W ✗ |
| Apr 19, 2026 | vs Burnley | W Nottingham Forest 66.4% · draw 17.4% | W ✓ |
| Apr 12, 2026 | vs Aston Villa | W Nottingham Forest 42.2% · draw 25.0% | D ✗ |
| Mar 22, 2026 | at Tottenham | L Nottingham Forest 29.5% · draw 24.7% | W ✗ |
| Mar 15, 2026 | vs Fulham | W Nottingham Forest 47.6% · draw 24.5% | D ✗ |
| Mar 04, 2026 | at Manchester City | L Nottingham Forest 13.7% · draw 15.3% | D ✗ |
| Mar 01, 2026 | at Brighton | L Nottingham Forest 23.8% · draw 22.7% | L ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
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