Burnley
Championship · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #16 of 24 58.5 expected pts · currently 8 pts after 10 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full Championship simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #19 of 20 in Premier League 22 pts · 4W-10D-24L · GD -37
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Premier League simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Burnley?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 28 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Burnley's results were 5.8% easier to call than the Premier League average. How this is measured.
| Market | Burnley | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 64.3% | 50.5% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 60.7% | 52.7% |
| Both teams to score | 42.9% | 52.7% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Championship | #5 | 1733 | 1733 | 1587 |
| 2025-26 | Premier League | #20 | 1478 | 1503 | 1296 |
| 2024-25 | Championship | #1 | 1727 | 1801 | 1801 |
| 2023-24 | Premier League | #18 | 1466 | 1466 | 1330 |
| 2022-23 | Championship | #1 | 1707 | 1800 | 1748 |
| 2021-22 | Premier League | #17 | 1471 | 1471 | 1402 |
| 2020-21 | Premier League | #16 | 1483 | 1504 | 1400 |
| 2019-20 | Premier League | #9 | 1522 | 1576 | 1534 |
| 2018-19 | Premier League | #14 | 1502 | 1507 | 1443 |
| 2017-18 | Premier League | #12 | 1529 | 1572 | 1462 |
| 2016-17 | Premier League | #15 | 1471 | 1497 | 1413 |
| 2015-16 | Championship | #1 | 1634 | 1730 | 1730 |
| 2014-15 | Premier League | #16 | 1467 | 1467 | 1424 |
| 2013-14 | Championship | #2 | 1502 | 1704 | 1671 |
| 2012-13 | Championship | #12 | 1512 | 1562 | 1504 |
| 2011-12 | Championship | #11 | 1503 | 1574 | 1488 |
| 2010-11 | Championship | #11 | 1596 | 1612 | 1510 |
| 2008-09 | Championship | #5 | 1457 | 1614 | 1600 |
| 2007-08 | Championship | #16 | 1487 | 1589 | 1468 |
| 2006-07 | Championship | #15 | 1454 | 1590 | 1453 |
| 2005-06 | Championship | #21 | 1482 | 1579 | 1422 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
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