Burnley

Premier League · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1296 · #20 Premier League 4W–10D–24L · 22 pts On script Updated May 18, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened

Final: #19 of 20 in Premier League 22 pts · 4W–10D–24L · GD -37

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.

Full Premier League simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Burnley?

On script 2025-26 · 32 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Burnley's results were 15.8% easier to call than the Premier League average. How this is measured.

MarketBurnleyLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 62.5% 47.8%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 56.2% 52.8%
Both teams to score 43.8% 53.5%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2025-26 Premier League #20 1478 1503 1296
2024-25 Championship #1 1727 1801 1801
2023-24 Premier League #18 1466 1466 1330
2022-23 Championship #1 1707 1800 1748
2021-22 Premier League #17 1471 1471 1402
2020-21 Premier League #16 1483 1504 1400
2019-20 Premier League #9 1522 1576 1534
2018-19 Premier League #14 1502 1507 1443
2017-18 Premier League #12 1529 1572 1462
2016-17 Premier League #15 1471 1497 1413
2015-16 Championship #1 1634 1730 1730
2014-15 Premier League #16 1467 1467 1424
2013-14 Championship #2 1502 1704 1671
2012-13 Championship #12 1512 1562 1504
2011-12 Championship #11 1503 1574 1488
2010-11 Championship #11 1596 1612 1510
2008-09 Championship #5 1457 1614 1600
2007-08 Championship #16 1487 1589 1468
2006-07 Championship #15 1454 1590 1453
2005-06 Championship #21 1482 1579 1422

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches — model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 18, 2026 at Arsenal L Burnley 3.8% · draw 5.6% L ✓
May 10, 2026 vs Aston Villa L Burnley 19.6% · draw 18.4% D ✗
May 01, 2026 at Leeds L Burnley 12.5% · draw 14.3% L ✓
Apr 22, 2026 vs Manchester City L Burnley 14.3% · draw 14.6% L ✓
Apr 19, 2026 at Nottingham Forest L Burnley 16.2% · draw 17.4% L ✓
Apr 11, 2026 vs Brighton L Burnley 28.8% · draw 23.9% L ✓
Mar 21, 2026 at Fulham L Burnley 12.8% · draw 14.5% L ✓
Mar 14, 2026 vs Bournemouth L Burnley 29.0% · draw 24.1% D ✗
Mar 03, 2026 at Everton L Burnley 12.6% · draw 14.3% L ✓
Feb 28, 2026 vs Brentford L Burnley 34.0% · draw 26.0% L ✓

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