Sunderland

Premier League · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1482 · #12 Premier League Chaos club Updated May 18, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #14 of 20 46.7 expected pts · pre-season forecast

League title 0.5%
Champions League 5.6%
Europa League 6.3%
Relegation 23.1%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.

Full Premier League simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Sunderland?

Chaos club 2025-26 · 32 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Sunderland's results were 18.9% harder to call than the Premier League average. How this is measured.

MarketSunderlandLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 34.4% 47.8%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 56.2% 52.8%
Both teams to score 43.8% 53.5%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2025-26 Premier League #12 1522 1554 1482
2024-25 Championship #19 1456 1648 1466
2023-24 Championship #22 1529 1601 1401
2022-23 Championship #4 1418 1592 1592
2021-22 League One #5 1557 1640 1619
2020-21 League One #7 1543 1664 1555
2019-20 League One #7 1553 1626 1562
2018-19 League One #5 1522 1685 1569
2017-18 Championship #21 1655 1680 1398
2016-17 Premier League #20 1482 1482 1306
2015-16 Premier League #11 1480 1500 1499
2014-15 Premier League #15 1502 1509 1446
2006-07 Championship #1 1485 1728 1704

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches — model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 17, 2026 at Everton L Sunderland 23.7% · draw 22.6% W ✗
May 09, 2026 vs Manchester United L Sunderland 24.2% · draw 21.4% D ✗
May 02, 2026 at Wolves L Sunderland 22.0% · draw 21.1% D ✗
Apr 24, 2026 vs Nottingham Forest W Sunderland 37.9% · draw 26.3% L ✗
Apr 19, 2026 at Aston Villa L Sunderland 17.8% · draw 18.5% L ✓
Apr 12, 2026 vs Tottenham W Sunderland 56.4% · draw 21.6% W ✓
Mar 22, 2026 at Newcastle L Sunderland 17.9% · draw 18.6% W ✗
Mar 14, 2026 vs Brighton W Sunderland 38.5% · draw 25.3% L ✗
Mar 03, 2026 at Leeds L Sunderland 19.0% · draw 19.5% W ✗
Feb 28, 2026 at Bournemouth L Sunderland 14.9% · draw 16.3% D ✗

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