Sunderland
Premier League · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #18 of 20 40.2 expected pts · currently 4 pts after 6 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full Premier League simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #7 of 20 in Premier League 54 pts · 14W-12D-12L · GD -6
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Premier League simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Sunderland?
Chaos club 2025-26 · 28 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Sunderland's results were 14.8% harder to call than the Premier League average. How this is measured.
| Market | Sunderland | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 42.9% | 50.5% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 50.0% | 52.7% |
| Both teams to score | 46.4% | 52.7% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Premier League | #18 | 1482 | 1502 | 1440 |
| 2025-26 | Premier League | #12 | 1522 | 1554 | 1482 |
| 2024-25 | Championship | #19 | 1456 | 1648 | 1466 |
| 2023-24 | Championship | #22 | 1529 | 1601 | 1401 |
| 2022-23 | Championship | #4 | 1418 | 1592 | 1592 |
| 2021-22 | League One | #5 | 1557 | 1640 | 1619 |
| 2020-21 | League One | #7 | 1543 | 1664 | 1555 |
| 2019-20 | League One | #7 | 1553 | 1626 | 1562 |
| 2018-19 | League One | #5 | 1522 | 1685 | 1569 |
| 2017-18 | Championship | #21 | 1655 | 1680 | 1398 |
| 2016-17 | Premier League | #20 | 1482 | 1482 | 1306 |
| 2015-16 | Premier League | #11 | 1480 | 1500 | 1499 |
| 2014-15 | Premier League | #15 | 1502 | 1509 | 1446 |
| 2006-07 | Championship | #1 | 1485 | 1728 | 1704 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
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