Tottenham
Premier League · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #20 of 20 34.4 expected pts · currently 3 pts after 6 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full Premier League simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #17 of 20 in Premier League 41 pts · 10W-11D-17L · GD -9
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Premier League simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Tottenham?
Chaos club 2025-26 · 27 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Tottenham's results were 11.9% harder to call than the Premier League average. How this is measured.
| Market | Tottenham | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 44.4% | 50.5% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 33.3% | 52.7% |
| Both teams to score | 59.3% | 52.7% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Premier League | #19 | 1478 | 1478 | 1424 |
| 2025-26 | Premier League | #18 | 1522 | 1569 | 1403 |
| 2024-25 | Premier League | #17 | 1502 | 1536 | 1359 |
| 2023-24 | Premier League | #9 | 1502 | 1647 | 1516 |
| 2022-23 | Premier League | #9 | 1522 | 1611 | 1491 |
| 2021-22 | Premier League | #3 | 1518 | 1632 | 1632 |
| 2020-21 | Premier League | #8 | 1471 | 1611 | 1541 |
| 2019-20 | Premier League | #4 | 1520 | 1579 | 1575 |
| 2018-19 | Premier League | #11 | 1529 | 1676 | 1495 |
| 2017-18 | Premier League | #2 | 1533 | 1715 | 1652 |
| 2016-17 | Premier League | #2 | 1502 | 1728 | 1723 |
| 2015-16 | Premier League | #4 | 1482 | 1687 | 1596 |
| 2014-15 | Premier League | #5 | 1529 | 1606 | 1546 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | at Manchester United | L Tottenham 9.2% · draw 14.1% | D ✗ |
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