Tottenham

Premier League · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1403 · #18 Premier League Chaos club Updated May 18, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #20 of 20 43.2 expected pts · pre-season forecast

League title 0.2%
Champions League 2.9%
Europa League 3.8%
Relegation 35.9%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.

Full Premier League simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Tottenham?

Chaos club 2025-26 · 31 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Tottenham's results were 12.2% harder to call than the Premier League average. How this is measured.

MarketTottenhamLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 38.7% 47.8%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 45.2% 52.8%
Both teams to score 58.1% 53.5%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2025-26 Premier League #18 1522 1569 1403
2024-25 Premier League #17 1502 1536 1359
2023-24 Premier League #9 1502 1647 1516
2022-23 Premier League #9 1522 1611 1491
2021-22 Premier League #3 1518 1632 1632
2020-21 Premier League #8 1471 1611 1541
2019-20 Premier League #4 1520 1579 1575
2018-19 Premier League #11 1529 1676 1495
2017-18 Premier League #2 1533 1715 1652
2016-17 Premier League #2 1502 1728 1723
2015-16 Premier League #4 1482 1687 1596
2014-15 Premier League #5 1529 1606 1546

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches — model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 11, 2026 vs Leeds W Tottenham 47.1% · draw 24.9% D ✗
May 03, 2026 at Aston Villa L Tottenham 24.3% · draw 23.0% W ✗
Apr 25, 2026 at Wolves W Tottenham 39.1% · draw 24.0% W ✓
Apr 18, 2026 vs Brighton L Tottenham 36.8% · draw 26.2% D ✗
Apr 12, 2026 at Sunderland L Tottenham 22.0% · draw 21.6% L ✓
Mar 22, 2026 vs Nottingham Forest W Tottenham 45.9% · draw 24.7% L ✗
Mar 15, 2026 at Liverpool L Tottenham 7.6% · draw 9.8% D ✗
Mar 05, 2026 vs Crystal Palace W Tottenham 40.8% · draw 24.6% L ✗
Mar 01, 2026 at Fulham L Tottenham 22.9% · draw 22.1% L ✓
Feb 22, 2026 vs Arsenal L Tottenham 22.5% · draw 20.3% L ✓

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