Premier League 2025-2026: Tottenham vs Brighton Prediction - 18 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Tottenham

Home Team
37%
VS

Brighton

Away Team
37%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 51%
Under 2.5: 49%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Corners: 10.1
Expected Shots: 25.2

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 32 21 7 4 62 24 38 70
2 Man City 31 19 7 5 63 28 35 64
3 Man United 32 15 10 7 57 45 12 55
4 Aston Villa 32 16 7 9 43 38 5 55
5 Liverpool 32 15 7 10 52 42 10 52
6 Chelsea 32 13 9 10 53 41 12 48
7 Brentford 32 13 8 11 48 44 4 47
8 Everton 32 13 8 11 39 37 2 47
9 Brighton 32 12 10 10 43 37 6 46
10 Sunderland 32 12 10 10 33 36 -3 46
11 Bournemouth 32 10 15 7 48 49 -1 45
12 Fulham 32 13 5 14 43 46 -3 44
13 Crystal Palace 31 11 9 11 35 36 -1 42
14 Newcastle 32 12 6 14 45 47 -2 42
15 Leeds 32 8 12 12 39 49 -10 36
16 Nott'm Forest 32 8 9 15 32 44 -12 33
17 West Ham 32 8 8 16 40 57 -17 32
18 Tottenham 32 7 9 16 40 51 -11 30
19 Burnley 32 4 8 20 33 63 -30 20
20 Wolves 32 3 8 21 24 58 -34 17

Recent Trends

Tottenham L L D L L

  • Last Match: L vs Sunderland (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Liverpool (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Fulham (Goals: 1 - 2)

Brighton W W W L W

  • Last Match: W vs Burnley (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Liverpool (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Sunderland (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Arsenal (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Tottenham

xG (avg) 1.30
xGA (avg) 2.26
Clean Sheets 0

Brighton

xG (avg) 1.20
xGA (avg) 0.97
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

The edge goes narrowly to Brighton, with the away win and the home win each rated at 37.0% and the draw at 26.0%, but the model’s predicted result leans towards the away side. Goals are expected, with an over 2.5 prediction given a 51.0% probability. In the table, Brighton are pushing the European pack in 9th on 46 points, while Tottenham sit a worrying 18th on 30 points and are firmly in the relegation battle.

Match Analysis

Tottenham come into this under real pressure: two defeats and a draw from their last three, with a 0-1 loss at Sunderland, a damaging 0-3 home defeat to Nottingham Forest, and a battling 1-1 draw away at Liverpool. Across their last five, they’ve averaged just 1.0 goal scored but 2.8 conceded, underlining why they’ve slipped into the bottom three. The underlying numbers tell a similar story: Spurs are creating a modest 1.298 expected goals on average but allowing 2.258, and they have failed to keep a single clean sheet in that run. Brighton, by contrast, arrive in excellent form with three straight wins: 1-0 at Sunderland, a statement 2-1 victory over Liverpool, and a controlled 2-0 success at Burnley. They’ve been tight at the back recently, conceding only 0.6 goals per game over the last five, with two clean sheets, while their attack ticks along at 1.2 goals and 1.2000000000000002 expected goals per match. Brighton’s defence is also limiting chances effectively, giving up just 0.974 xG on average, a sharp contrast to Tottenham’s leaky rearguard.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Tottenham
Goals in last 5 matches
Brighton
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is favoured at 51.0%, with both sides’ profiles suggesting there should be chances at both ends. Only one of Tottenham’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (the 0-3 vs Forest), while two stayed under, but their average of 2.8 conceded and 1.0 scored across the last five hints at volatile, high-scoring potential if things go wrong defensively. All three of Brighton’s recent games have finished under 2.5, yet their solid xG figures in attack (1.2000000000000002) against Spurs’ poor defensive xG (2.258 conceded) support the idea that this contest could tip over rather than end cagey and under 2.5.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Tottenham
Corners in last 5 matches
Brighton
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total for this match is 10.09, pointing towards a reasonably open, attacking contest. Tottenham’s last three have produced 8, 16 and 7 corners respectively, with Spurs notably forcing 13 against Forest, suggesting that when they chase games they rack up set-piece opportunities. Brighton’s recent outings have featured 10, 12 and 10 corners, and their willingness to push forward, even away from home, backs up a corners prediction around that 10-mark, with both teams’ styles likely to keep the flag-bearers busy.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Tottenham
Shots in last 5 matches
Brighton
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure stands at 25.23, indicating a match with frequent goal attempts. Tottenham’s last three saw them take 11, 14 and 13 shots while allowing 13, 8 and 17, which aligns with their xG profile of creating but also conceding plenty. Brighton have attempted 13, 16 and 12 shots in their last three and consistently allowed double figures, so the shots prediction of around 25 overall fits a pattern of two sides who generate enough efforts to justify their recent expected goals numbers.

Final Prediction

Brighton’s superior defensive record, recent three-game winning streak and more balanced xG profile give them a slight edge over a Tottenham side conceding heavily and struggling for control. The key battle to watch will be Brighton’s composed build-up against Spurs’ fragile back line – if the visitors settle early, Tottenham’s survival nerves could quickly be exposed.

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