Liverpool
Premier League · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Champions League 2026-27
#6 in the title oddsTop 24 counts every league-phase finish inside the knockout places, so the eight clubs that skip the play-off round are in it too. Top 8 is the separate direct route to the last 16. Points and finish are league-phase numbers, conditional on playing it.
10,000 simulated seasons · updated Sep 04, 2026.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #9 of 20 54.5 expected pts · currently 2 pts after 2 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full Premier League simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #5 of 20 in Premier League 60 pts · 17W-9D-12L · GD +10
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Premier League simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Liverpool?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 32 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Liverpool's results were 5.0% harder to call than the Premier League average. How this is measured.
| Market | Liverpool | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 53.1% | 47.8% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 56.2% | 52.8% |
| Both teams to score | 59.4% | 53.5% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Premier League | #12 | 1502 | 1502 | 1499 |
| 2025-26 | Premier League | #6 | 1520 | 1601 | 1522 |
| 2024-25 | Premier League | #2 | 1533 | 1753 | 1649 |
| 2023-24 | Premier League | #3 | 1502 | 1701 | 1640 |
| 2022-23 | Premier League | #3 | 1502 | 1639 | 1624 |
| 2021-22 | Premier League | #1 | 1534 | 1775 | 1775 |
| 2020-21 | Premier League | #2 | 1518 | 1651 | 1634 |
| 2019-20 | Premier League | #1 | 1522 | 1810 | 1716 |
| 2018-19 | Premier League | #1 | 1523 | 1781 | 1781 |
| 2017-18 | Premier League | #3 | 1502 | 1688 | 1644 |
| 2016-17 | Premier League | #6 | 1529 | 1661 | 1628 |
| 2015-16 | Premier League | #8 | 1529 | 1600 | 1562 |
| 2014-15 | Premier League | #6 | 1518 | 1676 | 1529 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2026 | at Aston Villa | L Liverpool 36.2% · draw 24.4% | L ✓ |
| May 09, 2026 | vs Chelsea | W Liverpool 53.1% · draw 22.2% | D ✗ |
| May 03, 2026 | at Manchester United | L Liverpool 26.6% · draw 23.2% | L ✓ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vs Crystal Palace | W Liverpool 72.9% · draw 14.4% | W ✓ |
| Apr 19, 2026 | at Everton | W Liverpool 50.5% · draw 22.8% | W ✓ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs Fulham | W Liverpool 68.5% · draw 16.4% | W ✓ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | at Brighton | W Liverpool 48.0% · draw 23.2% | L ✗ |
| Mar 15, 2026 | vs Tottenham | W Liverpool 82.6% · draw 9.8% | D ✗ |
| Mar 03, 2026 | at Wolves | W Liverpool 59.2% · draw 19.5% | L ✗ |
| Feb 28, 2026 | vs West Ham | W Liverpool 83.4% · draw 9.4% | W ✓ |
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
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