Liverpool

Premier League · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1522 · #6 Premier League In line Updated May 18, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #5 of 20 55.7 expected pts · pre-season forecast

League title 4.4%
Champions League 25.2%
Europa League 14.9%
Relegation 5.2%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.

Full Premier League simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Liverpool?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 32 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Liverpool's results were 5.0% harder to call than the Premier League average. How this is measured.

MarketLiverpoolLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 53.1% 47.8%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 56.2% 52.8%
Both teams to score 59.4% 53.5%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2025-26 Premier League #6 1520 1601 1522
2024-25 Premier League #2 1533 1753 1649
2023-24 Premier League #3 1502 1701 1640
2022-23 Premier League #3 1502 1639 1624
2021-22 Premier League #1 1534 1775 1775
2020-21 Premier League #2 1518 1651 1634
2019-20 Premier League #1 1522 1810 1716
2018-19 Premier League #1 1523 1781 1781
2017-18 Premier League #3 1502 1688 1644
2016-17 Premier League #6 1529 1661 1628
2015-16 Premier League #8 1529 1600 1562
2014-15 Premier League #6 1518 1676 1529

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches — model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 15, 2026 at Aston Villa L Liverpool 36.2% · draw 24.4% L ✓
May 09, 2026 vs Chelsea W Liverpool 53.1% · draw 22.2% D ✗
May 03, 2026 at Manchester United L Liverpool 26.6% · draw 23.2% L ✓
Apr 25, 2026 vs Crystal Palace W Liverpool 72.9% · draw 14.4% W ✓
Apr 19, 2026 at Everton W Liverpool 50.5% · draw 22.8% W ✓
Apr 11, 2026 vs Fulham W Liverpool 68.5% · draw 16.4% W ✓
Mar 21, 2026 at Brighton W Liverpool 48.0% · draw 23.2% L ✗
Mar 15, 2026 vs Tottenham W Liverpool 82.6% · draw 9.8% D ✗
Mar 03, 2026 at Wolves W Liverpool 59.2% · draw 19.5% L ✗
Feb 28, 2026 vs West Ham W Liverpool 83.4% · draw 9.4% W ✓

Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0

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Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/liverpool">Premier League title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)

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