Brighton

Premier League · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1585 · #2 Premier League 4W-1D-1L · 13 pts In line Updated Oct 12, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #3 of 20 68.9 expected pts · currently 13 pts after 6 matches

League title 6.6%
Champions League places 83.5%
Europa League 11.2%
Relegation 0.0%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full Premier League simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Brighton?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 28 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Brighton's results were 7.6% harder to call than the Premier League average. How this is measured.

MarketBrightonLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 42.9% 50.5%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 50.0% 52.7%
Both teams to score 53.6% 52.7%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 Premier League #2 1523 1585 1585
2025-26 Premier League #7 1498 1572 1518
2024-25 Premier League #6 1534 1594 1588
2023-24 Premier League #14 1522 1563 1440
2022-23 Premier League #8 1529 1569 1545
2021-22 Premier League #7 1529 1557 1540
2020-21 Premier League #13 1467 1512 1476
2019-20 Premier League #13 1534 1534 1463
2018-19 Premier League #19 1480 1513 1339
2017-18 Premier League #13 1467 1516 1449
2016-17 Championship #4 1635 1748 1602
2015-16 Championship #2 1459 1674 1670
2014-15 Championship #21 1521 1533 1425
2013-14 Championship #5 1568 1590 1573
2012-13 Championship #1 1473 1620 1620
2011-12 Championship #10 1387 1561 1489
2010-11 League One #3 1564 1730 1655
2009-10 League One #8 1471 1557 1538
2008-09 League One #11 1540 1578 1502
2007-08 League One #11 1409 1573 1533
2006-07 League One #20 1529 1547 1404
2005-06 Championship #24 1502 1502 1334

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 10, 2026 at Sunderland W Brighton 45.6% · draw 24.9% W ✓

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