Brighton
Premier League · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #6 of 20 54.4 expected pts · pre-season forecast
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.
Full Premier League simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #8 of 20 in Premier League 53 pts · 14W–11D–13L · GD +6
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Premier League simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Brighton?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 32 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Brighton's results were 7.4% harder to call than the Premier League average. How this is measured.
| Market | Brighton | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 43.8% | 47.8% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 50.0% | 52.8% |
| Both teams to score | 56.2% | 53.5% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Premier League | #7 | 1498 | 1572 | 1518 |
| 2024-25 | Premier League | #6 | 1534 | 1594 | 1588 |
| 2023-24 | Premier League | #14 | 1522 | 1563 | 1440 |
| 2022-23 | Premier League | #8 | 1529 | 1569 | 1545 |
| 2021-22 | Premier League | #7 | 1529 | 1557 | 1540 |
| 2020-21 | Premier League | #13 | 1467 | 1512 | 1476 |
| 2019-20 | Premier League | #13 | 1534 | 1534 | 1463 |
| 2018-19 | Premier League | #19 | 1480 | 1513 | 1339 |
| 2017-18 | Premier League | #13 | 1467 | 1516 | 1449 |
| 2016-17 | Championship | #4 | 1635 | 1748 | 1602 |
| 2015-16 | Championship | #2 | 1459 | 1674 | 1670 |
| 2014-15 | Championship | #21 | 1521 | 1533 | 1425 |
| 2013-14 | Championship | #5 | 1568 | 1590 | 1573 |
| 2012-13 | Championship | #1 | 1473 | 1620 | 1620 |
| 2011-12 | Championship | #10 | 1387 | 1561 | 1489 |
| 2010-11 | League One | #3 | 1564 | 1730 | 1655 |
| 2009-10 | League One | #8 | 1471 | 1557 | 1538 |
| 2008-09 | League One | #11 | 1540 | 1578 | 1502 |
| 2007-08 | League One | #11 | 1409 | 1573 | 1533 |
| 2006-07 | League One | #20 | 1529 | 1547 | 1404 |
| 2005-06 | Championship | #24 | 1502 | 1502 | 1334 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | at Leeds | W Brighton 38.7% · draw 25.5% | L ✗ |
| May 09, 2026 | vs Wolves | W Brighton 73.5% · draw 14.2% | W ✓ |
| May 02, 2026 | at Newcastle | L Brighton 29.7% · draw 25.0% | L ✓ |
| Apr 21, 2026 | vs Chelsea | L Brighton 34.6% · draw 25.0% | W ✗ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | at Tottenham | W Brighton 36.9% · draw 26.2% | D ✗ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | at Burnley | W Brighton 47.3% · draw 23.9% | W ✓ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Liverpool | L Brighton 28.8% · draw 23.2% | W ✗ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | at Sunderland | L Brighton 36.3% · draw 25.3% | W ✗ |
| Mar 04, 2026 | vs Arsenal | L Brighton 29.5% · draw 24.3% | L ✓ |
| Mar 01, 2026 | vs Nottingham Forest | W Brighton 53.6% · draw 22.7% | W ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Premier League title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/brighton">Premier League title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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