Segunda División 2026-2027: Burgos vs Eldense Prediction - 27 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Burgos

Home Team
51%
VS

Eldense

Away Team
22%
Draw: 27%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 24.3
Expected Spread: +0.5

Why the Model Leans Burgos

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Burgos
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +5.0 Burgos
Attack +4.0 Burgos
Results & dominance +1.1 Eldense
Defense +0.7 Eldense

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 70% for Burgos. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Burgos attack & chance creation +3.4 Under
League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Burgos defense +1.6 Over
Eldense attack & chance creation +1.4 Over
Form & results +1.3 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 54% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Castellon 6 5 1 0 12 2 10 16
2 Eibar 6 5 0 1 12 4 8 15
3 Mallorca 6 4 1 1 8 2 6 13
4 Almeria 6 4 0 2 10 4 6 12
5 Burgos 6 3 2 1 10 7 3 11
6 Sabadell 6 3 2 1 7 5 2 11
7 Leganes 6 3 2 1 6 5 1 11
8 Girona 6 3 1 2 12 8 4 10
9 Sp Gijon 6 3 1 2 5 4 1 10
10 Las Palmas 6 3 1 2 8 8 0 10
11 Tenerife 6 3 1 2 7 8 -1 10
12 Sociedad B 6 2 2 2 8 7 1 8
13 Oviedo 6 2 2 2 5 4 1 8
14 Granada 6 2 2 2 8 8 0 8
15 Celta B 6 2 1 3 7 10 -3 7
16 Cordoba 6 2 0 4 9 13 -4 6
17 Eldense 6 1 2 3 4 8 -4 5
18 Valladolid 6 1 2 3 3 8 -5 5
19 Cadiz 6 0 3 3 6 9 -3 3
20 Andorra 6 1 0 5 9 13 -4 3
21 Albacete 6 0 1 5 4 10 -6 1
22 Ceuta 6 0 1 5 3 16 -13 1
23 Celta 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24 Sociedad 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Recent Trends

Burgos W W D D L

  • Last Match: W vs Las Palmas (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Ceuta (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Oviedo (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Sociedad B (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Sp Gijon (Goals: 0 - 1)

Eldense L W D L D

  • Last Match: L vs Eibar (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Sp Gijon (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Mallorca (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Leganes (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Cadiz (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Burgos

Goals scored (avg, home) 2.67
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.67
Clean Sheets 1

Eldense

Goals scored (avg, away) 0.33
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.33
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Burgos a 51% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 27% and Eldense at 22%. Burgos are the favourite, but the gap to the other outcomes is modest. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 54% and sees both teams scoring in 50% of cases.

Match Analysis

Burgos arrive with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (WWDDL from most recent), scoring 7 and conceding 5 with 1 clean sheet. Eldense arrive with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (LWDLD from most recent), scoring 4 and conceding 5 with 2 clean sheets. In the table Burgos sit 5th with 11 points from 6 games and a goal difference of +3, while Eldense are 17th with 5 points and a goal difference of -4. That puts Burgos 6 points clear of their opponent. Burgos average 2.7 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over their last five home games, while Eldense average 0.3 scored and 1.3 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Burgos), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (5.0 points toward Burgos), attack (4.0 points toward Burgos). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Burgos
Goals in last 5 matches
Eldense
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 54% and Over 2.5 at 46%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Burgos matches produced 2.4 goals on average over their last 5, Eldense matches 1.8. Both teams to score comes in at 50%, no goal for at least one side at 50%. In the model's own attribution, Burgos attack & chance creation pulls toward Under by 3.4 points and league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Burgos
Corners in last 5 matches
Eldense
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.7 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 49%, which leaves 51% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Burgos
Shots in last 5 matches
Eldense
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 24.3 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 24. The chance of 24 shots or fewer is 53%, which leaves 47% for 25 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Burgos wins by X goals. Negative = Eldense wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Burgos vs Eldense with expected spread of +0.5
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Burgos vs Eldense
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.5 goals in favour of Burgos. The spread model gives 28% to a Burgos win by two goals or more and 37% to any Eldense win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Burgos win (51%), Under 2.5 (54%), Goal (50%). Expected totals: 9.7 corners and 24.3 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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