Burgos
Segunda División · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #7 of 22 in Segunda División 72 pts · 20W–12D–10L · GD +15
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Segunda División simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Burgos?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 37 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Burgos's results were 4.6% harder to call than the Segunda División average. How this is measured.
| Market | Burgos | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 46.0% | 50.1% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 75.7% | 58.0% |
| Both teams to score | 51.3% | 56.0% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Segunda División | #3 | 1523 | 1626 | 1626 |
| 2024-25 | Segunda División | #11 | 1508 | 1554 | 1498 |
| 2023-24 | Segunda División | #16 | 1417 | 1608 | 1483 |
| 2022-23 | Segunda División | #21 | 1527 | 1619 | 1397 |
| 2021-22 | Segunda División | #11 | 1483 | 1565 | 1518 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | vs Andorra | W Burgos 42.1% · draw 30.9% | W ✓ |
| May 24, 2026 | at Cultural Leonesa | W Burgos 36.2% · draw 31.0% | W ✓ |
| May 16, 2026 | at Granada | L Burgos 32.7% · draw 31.9% | W ✗ |
| May 09, 2026 | vs Almeria | L Burgos 33.6% · draw 30.4% | D ✗ |
| May 03, 2026 | at Sociedad B | W Burgos 37.1% · draw 31.1% | D ✗ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vs La Coruna | L Burgos 33.1% · draw 31.4% | D ✗ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | at Castellon | L Burgos 17.9% · draw 26.9% | L ✓ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs Sp Gijon | W Burgos 45.7% · draw 30.1% | W ✓ |
| Apr 04, 2026 | at Albacete | L Burgos 31.0% · draw 31.4% | W ✗ |
| Apr 01, 2026 | vs Ceuta | W Burgos 53.7% · draw 27.5% | D ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Segunda División title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
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