Segunda División 2026-2027: Celta B vs Sociedad B Prediction - 10 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Celta B

Home Team
43%
VS

Sociedad B

Away Team
27%
Draw: 30%
Over 2.5: 51%
Under 2.5: 49%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 26.1
Expected Spread: +0.1

Why the Model Leans Celta B

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Celta B
Defense +1.2 Celta B
Results & dominance +0.7 Sociedad B

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 61% for Celta B. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Sociedad B attack & chance creation +2.3 Over
Form & results +1.4 Over
Celta B defense +0.7 Under
Sociedad B defense +0.6 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 51% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Eibar 8 7 0 1 18 7 11 21
2 Castellon 8 6 2 0 15 3 12 20
3 Almeria 8 6 0 2 13 5 8 18
4 Girona 8 4 2 2 14 8 6 14
5 Mallorca 8 4 2 2 8 3 5 14
6 Burgos 8 4 2 2 12 9 3 14
7 Sabadell 8 3 4 1 8 6 2 13
8 Sp Gijon 8 4 1 3 8 8 0 13
9 Granada 8 3 2 3 13 13 0 11
10 Oviedo 8 3 2 3 8 8 0 11
11 Las Palmas 8 3 2 3 12 13 -1 11
12 Tenerife 8 3 2 3 10 12 -2 11
13 Leganes 8 3 2 3 6 11 -5 11
14 Valladolid 8 2 3 3 8 11 -3 9
15 Cordoba 8 3 0 5 13 18 -5 9
16 Sociedad B 8 2 2 4 11 13 -2 8
17 Eldense 8 2 2 4 8 10 -2 8
18 Celta B 8 2 2 4 10 14 -4 8
19 Cadiz 8 1 4 3 11 10 1 7
20 Andorra 8 2 1 5 12 15 -3 7
21 Ceuta 8 1 2 5 7 18 -11 5
22 Albacete 8 0 1 7 5 15 -10 1

Recent Trends

Celta B L D L L W

  • Last Match: L vs Sp Gijon (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Sabadell (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Almeria (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Eibar (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Ceuta (Goals: 2 - 0)

Sociedad B L L L W D

  • Last Match: L vs Granada (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Ceuta (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Mallorca (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Andorra (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Tenerife (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Celta B

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.50
Goals conceded (avg, home) 2.25
Clean Sheets 1

Sociedad B

Goals scored (avg, away) 2.00
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.75
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Celta B a 43% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 30% and Sociedad B at 27%. This is a tight call, with Celta B only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 51% and sees both teams scoring in 56% of cases.

Match Analysis

Celta B arrive with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from their last 5 league games (LDLLW from most recent), scoring 5 and conceding 10 with 1 clean sheet. Sociedad B arrive with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from their last 5 league games (LLLWD from most recent), scoring 7 and conceding 9 with 0 clean sheets. In the table Celta B sit 18th with 8 points from 8 games and a goal difference of -4, while Sociedad B are 16th with 8 points and a goal difference of -2. The two sides are level on points. Celta B average 1.5 goals scored and 2.2 conceded over their last five home games, while Sociedad B average 2.0 scored and 1.8 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Celta B), defense (1.2 points toward Celta B), results & dominance (0.7 points toward Sociedad B). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Celta B
Goals in last 5 matches
Sociedad B
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 49% and Over 2.5 at 51%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Celta B matches produced 3.0 goals on average over their last 5, Sociedad B matches 3.2. Both teams to score comes in at 56%, no goal for at least one side at 44%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Sociedad B attack & chance creation pulls toward Over by 2.3 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Celta B
Corners in last 5 matches
Sociedad B
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.8 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 48%, which leaves 52% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Celta B
Shots in last 5 matches
Sociedad B
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 26.1 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 26. The chance of 26 shots or fewer is 55%, which leaves 45% for 27 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Celta B wins by X goals. Negative = Sociedad B wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Celta B vs Sociedad B with expected spread of +0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Celta B vs Sociedad B
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.1 goals in favour of Celta B. The spread model gives 24% to a Celta B win by two goals or more and 42% to any Sociedad B win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Celta B win (43%), Over 2.5 (51%), Goal (56%). Expected totals: 9.8 corners and 26.1 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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