Segunda División 2026-2027: Cordoba vs Tenerife Prediction - 5 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Cordoba

Home Team
40%
VS

Tenerife

Away Team
29%
Draw: 31%
Over 2.5: 41%
Under 2.5: 59%
Goal: 47%
No Goal: 53%
Expected Corners: 8.5
Expected Shots: 22.3
Expected Spread: +0.2

Why the Model Leans Cordoba

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Cordoba
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +3.5 Tenerife
Attack +3.4 Cordoba
Defense +3.1 Tenerife
Results & dominance +2.3 Tenerife

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 58% for Cordoba. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Tenerife attack & chance creation +2.3 Under
Cordoba defense +2.3 Under
Tenerife defense +1.8 Under
Rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) +1.5 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 59% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Castellon 7 6 1 0 14 2 12 19
2 Eibar 7 6 0 1 15 6 9 18
3 Almeria 7 5 0 2 11 4 7 15
4 Burgos 7 4 2 1 11 7 4 14
5 Girona 7 4 1 2 14 8 6 13
6 Mallorca 7 4 1 2 8 3 5 13
7 Sabadell 7 3 3 1 8 6 2 12
8 Oviedo 7 3 2 2 7 4 3 11
9 Tenerife 7 3 2 2 8 9 -1 11
10 Leganes 7 3 2 2 6 7 -1 11
11 Las Palmas 7 3 1 3 10 11 -1 10
12 Sp Gijon 7 3 1 3 5 6 -1 10
13 Granada 7 2 2 3 10 11 -1 8
14 Sociedad B 7 2 2 3 9 10 -1 8
15 Celta B 7 2 2 3 8 11 -3 8
16 Valladolid 7 2 2 3 6 9 -3 8
17 Andorra 7 2 0 5 12 15 -3 6
18 Cordoba 7 2 0 5 10 16 -6 6
19 Eldense 7 1 2 4 4 9 -5 5
20 Cadiz 7 0 4 3 7 10 -3 4
21 Ceuta 7 1 1 5 6 17 -11 4
22 Albacete 7 0 1 6 4 12 -8 1

Recent Trends

Cordoba L W L L L

  • Last Match: L vs Valladolid (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Albacete (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Almeria (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Sabadell (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Granada (Goals: 1 - 3)

Tenerife D L W D L

  • Last Match: D vs Cadiz (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Castellon (Goals: 0 - 5)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Leganes (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Sociedad B (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Sp Gijon (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Cordoba

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, home) 2.00
Clean Sheets 0

Tenerife

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.33
Goals conceded (avg, away) 2.33
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Cordoba a 40% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 31% and Tenerife at 29%. This is a tight call, with Cordoba only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 59% and sees both teams scoring in 47% of cases.

Match Analysis

Cordoba arrive with 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats from their last 5 league games (LWLLL from most recent), scoring 6 and conceding 12 with 0 clean sheets. Tenerife arrive with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (DLWDL from most recent), scoring 4 and conceding 8 with 1 clean sheet. In the table Cordoba sit 18th with 6 points from 7 games and a goal difference of -6, while Tenerife are 9th with 11 points and a goal difference of -1. That puts Tenerife 5 points clear of their opponent. Cordoba average 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over their last five home games, while Tenerife average 1.3 scored and 2.3 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Cordoba), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (3.5 points toward Tenerife), attack (3.4 points toward Cordoba). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Cordoba
Goals in last 5 matches
Tenerife
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 59% and Over 2.5 at 41%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Cordoba matches produced 3.6 goals on average over their last 5, Tenerife matches 2.4. Both teams to score comes in at 47%, no goal for at least one side at 53%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Tenerife attack & chance creation pulls toward Under by 2.3 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Cordoba
Corners in last 5 matches
Tenerife
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 8.5 corners in total. The single most likely count is 8. The chance of 8 corners or fewer is 52%, which leaves 48% for 9 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Cordoba
Shots in last 5 matches
Tenerife
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 22.3 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 22. The chance of 22 shots or fewer is 53%, which leaves 47% for 23 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Cordoba wins by X goals. Negative = Tenerife wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Cordoba vs Tenerife with expected spread of +0.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Cordoba vs Tenerife
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.2 goals in favour of Cordoba. The spread model gives 25% to a Cordoba win by two goals or more and 40% to any Tenerife win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Cordoba win (40%), Under 2.5 (59%), No Goal (53%). Expected totals: 8.5 corners and 22.3 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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