Segunda División 2026-2027: Eldense vs Eibar Prediction - 19 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Eldense

Home Team
32%
VS

Eibar

Away Team
38%
Draw: 30%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 9.3
Expected Shots: 23.8
Expected Spread: -0.1

Why the Model Leans Eibar

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Eldense
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +8.0 Eibar
Results & dominance +5.4 Eibar
Attack +3.3 Eibar
Defense +0.6 Eibar

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 55% for Eibar. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Eibar defense +3.0 Over
League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Eldense attack & chance creation +0.8 Over
Rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) +0.8 Under
Form & results +0.7 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 51% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Castellon 5 4 1 0 7 2 5 13
2 Eibar 5 4 0 1 10 3 7 12
3 Mallorca 5 3 1 1 7 2 5 10
4 Tenerife 5 3 1 1 7 3 4 10
5 Las Palmas 5 3 1 1 7 6 1 10
6 Almeria 5 3 0 2 8 4 4 9
7 Oviedo 5 2 2 1 4 1 3 8
8 Burgos 5 2 2 1 8 6 2 8
9 Sociedad B 5 2 2 1 8 6 2 8
10 Granada 5 2 2 1 6 5 1 8
11 Sabadell 5 2 2 1 4 4 0 8
12 Leganes 5 2 2 1 3 3 0 8
13 Girona 5 2 1 2 10 7 3 7
14 Celta B 5 2 1 2 7 8 -1 7
15 Sp Gijon 5 2 1 2 2 3 -1 7
16 Eldense 5 1 2 2 3 6 -3 5
17 Valladolid 5 1 1 3 2 7 -5 4
18 Andorra 5 1 0 4 8 10 -2 3
19 Cadiz 5 0 3 2 5 7 -2 3
20 Cordoba 5 1 0 4 7 12 -5 3
21 Albacete 5 0 1 4 3 8 -5 1
22 Celta 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23 Sociedad 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24 Ceuta 5 0 0 5 2 15 -13 0

Recent Trends

Eldense W D L D L

  • Last Match: W vs Sp Gijon (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Mallorca (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Leganes (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Cadiz (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Almeria (Goals: 0 - 3)

Eibar W W W W L

  • Last Match: W vs Celta B (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Granada (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Andorra (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Valladolid (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Tenerife (Goals: 1 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Eldense

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.00
Clean Sheets 2

Eibar

Goals scored (avg, away) 2.50
Goals conceded (avg, away) 0.00
Clean Sheets 4

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Eldense a 32% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 30% and Eibar at 38%. This is a tight call, with Eibar only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 51% and sees both teams scoring in 55% of cases.

Match Analysis

Eldense arrive with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (WDLDL from most recent), scoring 3 and conceding 6 with 2 clean sheets. Eibar arrive with 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (WWWWL from most recent), scoring 10 and conceding 3 with 4 clean sheets. In the table Eldense sit 16th with 5 points from 5 games and a goal difference of -3, while Eibar are 2nd with 12 points and a goal difference of +7. That puts Eibar 7 points clear of their opponent. Eldense average 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over their last five home games, while Eibar average 2.5 scored and 0.0 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Eldense), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (8.0 points toward Eibar), results & dominance (5.4 points toward Eibar). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Eldense
Goals in last 5 matches
Eibar
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 51% and Over 2.5 at 49%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Eldense matches produced 1.8 goals on average over their last 5, Eibar matches 2.6. Both teams to score comes in at 55%, no goal for at least one side at 45%. In the model's own attribution, Eibar defense pulls toward Over by 3.0 points and league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Eldense
Corners in last 5 matches
Eibar
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.3 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 54%, which leaves 46% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Eldense
Shots in last 5 matches
Eibar
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 23.8 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 23. The chance of 23 shots or fewer is 49%, which leaves 51% for 24 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Eldense wins by X goals. Negative = Eibar wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Eldense vs Eibar with expected spread of -0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Eldense vs Eibar
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.1 goals in favour of Eibar. The spread model gives 21% to a Eldense win by two goals or more and 46% to any Eibar win. An Eibar win by 1 is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Eibar win (38%), Under 2.5 (51%), Goal (55%). Expected totals: 9.3 corners and 23.8 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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