Eibar
Segunda División · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #8 of 22 in Segunda División 67 pts · 19W–10D–13L · GD +12
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Segunda División simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Eibar?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 37 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Eibar's results were 5.8% easier to call than the Segunda División average. How this is measured.
| Market | Eibar | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 54.0% | 50.1% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 62.2% | 58.0% |
| Both teams to score | 51.3% | 56.0% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Segunda División | #7 | 1502 | 1648 | 1577 |
| 2024-25 | Segunda División | #6 | 1580 | 1612 | 1549 |
| 2023-24 | Segunda División | #4 | 1528 | 1633 | 1589 |
| 2022-23 | Segunda División | #7 | 1603 | 1654 | 1567 |
| 2021-22 | Segunda División | #5 | 1485 | 1706 | 1613 |
| 2020-21 | La Liga | #19 | 1498 | 1499 | 1361 |
| 2019-20 | La Liga | #14 | 1482 | 1497 | 1455 |
| 2018-19 | La Liga | #11 | 1471 | 1517 | 1479 |
| 2017-18 | La Liga | #11 | 1529 | 1570 | 1504 |
| 2016-17 | La Liga | #12 | 1482 | 1588 | 1475 |
| 2015-16 | La Liga | #20 | 1533 | 1551 | 1373 |
| 2014-15 | La Liga | #19 | 1518 | 1540 | 1335 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | at Castellon | L Eibar 15.7% · draw 25.0% | L ✓ |
| May 24, 2026 | vs Cordoba | W Eibar 44.4% · draw 29.9% | W ✓ |
| May 16, 2026 | at Cultural Leonesa | W Eibar 40.5% · draw 28.9% | L ✗ |
| May 10, 2026 | at Mirandes | W Eibar 41.9% · draw 28.2% | W ✓ |
| May 02, 2026 | vs Malaga | W Eibar 55.4% · draw 25.8% | L ✗ |
| Apr 24, 2026 | at Albacete | L Eibar 33.4% · draw 31.3% | W ✗ |
| Apr 19, 2026 | vs Huesca | W Eibar 68.6% · draw 19.3% | W ✓ |
| Apr 13, 2026 | at Valladolid | L Eibar 30.0% · draw 30.8% | D ✗ |
| Apr 05, 2026 | vs Ceuta | W Eibar 56.2% · draw 25.5% | W ✓ |
| Apr 02, 2026 | at Sociedad B | W Eibar 39.5% · draw 29.4% | W ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Segunda División title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/eibar">Segunda División title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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