Segunda División 2026-2027: Eldense vs Real Oviedo Prediction - 2 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Eldense

Home Team
36%
VS

Real Oviedo

Away Team
33%
Draw: 31%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 23.9
Expected Spread: -0.0

Why the Model Leans Eldense

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Eldense
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +5.8 Real Oviedo
Results & dominance +2.7 Real Oviedo
Defense +1.2 Real Oviedo
Attack +1.2 Real Oviedo

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 52% for Eldense. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Eldense defense +1.4 Under
Rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) +1.4 Under
Eldense attack & chance creation +0.7 Over
Real Oviedo defense +0.7 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 54% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Castellon 7 6 1 0 14 2 12 19
2 Eibar 7 6 0 1 15 6 9 18
3 Almeria 7 5 0 2 11 4 7 15
4 Burgos 7 4 2 1 11 7 4 14
5 Girona 7 4 1 2 14 8 6 13
6 Mallorca 7 4 1 2 8 3 5 13
7 Sabadell 7 3 3 1 8 6 2 12
8 Oviedo 7 3 2 2 7 4 3 11
9 Tenerife 7 3 2 2 8 9 -1 11
10 Leganes 7 3 2 2 6 7 -1 11
11 Las Palmas 7 3 1 3 10 11 -1 10
12 Sp Gijon 7 3 1 3 5 6 -1 10
13 Granada 7 2 2 3 10 11 -1 8
14 Sociedad B 7 2 2 3 9 10 -1 8
15 Celta B 7 2 2 3 8 11 -3 8
16 Valladolid 7 2 2 3 6 9 -3 8
17 Andorra 7 2 0 5 12 15 -3 6
18 Cordoba 7 2 0 5 10 16 -6 6
19 Eldense 7 1 2 4 4 9 -5 5
20 Cadiz 7 0 4 3 7 10 -3 4
21 Ceuta 7 1 1 5 6 17 -11 4
22 Albacete 7 0 1 6 4 12 -8 1

Recent Trends

Eldense L L W D L

  • Last Match: L vs Burgos (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Eibar (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Sp Gijon (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Mallorca (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Leganes (Goals: 0 - 1)

Real Oviedo W L W D W

  • Last Match: W vs Sp Gijon (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Sabadell (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Valladolid (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Burgos (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Albacete (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Eldense

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.33
Clean Sheets 2

Real Oviedo

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.67
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.00
Clean Sheets 4

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Eldense a 36% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 31% and Oviedo at 33%. This is a tight call, with Eldense only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 54% and sees both teams scoring in 51% of cases.

Match Analysis

Eldense arrive with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from their last 5 league games (LLWDL from most recent), scoring 2 and conceding 4 with 2 clean sheets. Oviedo arrive with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (WLWDW from most recent), scoring 7 and conceding 3 with 4 clean sheets. In the table Eldense sit 19th with 5 points from 7 games and a goal difference of -5, while Oviedo are 8th with 11 points and a goal difference of +3. That puts Oviedo 6 points clear of their opponent. Eldense average 1.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over their last five home games, while Oviedo average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Eldense), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (5.8 points toward Oviedo), results & dominance (2.7 points toward Oviedo). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Eldense
Goals in last 5 matches
Real Oviedo
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 54% and Over 2.5 at 46%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Eldense matches produced 1.2 goals on average over their last 5, Oviedo matches 2.0. Both teams to score comes in at 51%, no goal for at least one side at 49%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Eldense defense pulls toward Under by 1.4 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Eldense
Corners in last 5 matches
Real Oviedo
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.2 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 56%, which leaves 44% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Eldense
Shots in last 5 matches
Real Oviedo
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 23.9 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 23. The chance of 23 shots or fewer is 48%, which leaves 52% for 24 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Eldense wins by X goals. Negative = Real Oviedo wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Eldense vs Real Oviedo with expected spread of -0.0
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Eldense vs Real Oviedo
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.0 goals in favour of Oviedo. The spread model gives 22% to a Eldense win by two goals or more and 45% to any Oviedo win. An Oviedo win by 1 is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Eldense win (36%), Under 2.5 (54%), Goal (51%). Expected totals: 9.2 corners and 23.9 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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