Real Oviedo
La Liga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #20 of 20 in La Liga 29 pts · 6W–11D–21L · GD -34
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full La Liga simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Real Oviedo?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 32 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Real Oviedo's results were 1.7% harder to call than the La Liga average. How this is measured.
| Market | Real Oviedo | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 46.9% | 51.1% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 65.6% | 58.6% |
| Both teams to score | 43.8% | 56.7% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | La Liga | #20 | 1480 | 1480 | 1372 |
| 2024-25 | Segunda División | #2 | 1570 | 1636 | 1636 |
| 2023-24 | Segunda División | #5 | 1539 | 1631 | 1554 |
| 2022-23 | Segunda División | #6 | 1565 | 1591 | 1573 |
| 2021-22 | Segunda División | #4 | 1505 | 1654 | 1629 |
| 2020-21 | Segunda División | #11 | 1530 | 1545 | 1511 |
| 2019-20 | Segunda División | #10 | 1508 | 1563 | 1542 |
| 2018-19 | Segunda División | #11 | 1505 | 1584 | 1530 |
| 2017-18 | Segunda División | #10 | 1471 | 1619 | 1510 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | vs Alaves | L Real Oviedo 36.2% · draw 26.3% | L ✓ |
| May 14, 2026 | at Real Madrid | L Real Oviedo 7.5% · draw 9.7% | L ✓ |
| May 10, 2026 | vs Getafe | W Real Oviedo 44.7% · draw 25.8% | D ✗ |
| May 03, 2026 | at Real Betis | L Real Oviedo 18.3% · draw 18.9% | L ✓ |
| Apr 26, 2026 | vs Elche | W Real Oviedo 48.1% · draw 24.4% | L ✗ |
| Apr 23, 2026 | vs Villarreal | L Real Oviedo 32.7% · draw 25.9% | D ✗ |
| Apr 12, 2026 | at Celta Vigo | L Real Oviedo 15.2% · draw 16.5% | W ✗ |
| Apr 05, 2026 | vs Sevilla | L Real Oviedo 37.5% · draw 25.0% | W ✗ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | at Levante | L Real Oviedo 22.7% · draw 22.0% | L ✓ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vs Valencia | L Real Oviedo 29.6% · draw 24.4% | W ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
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