Segunda División 2026-2027: Sp Gijon vs Celta B Prediction - 4 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Sp Gijon

Home Team
46%
VS

Celta B

Away Team
25%
Draw: 29%
Over 2.5: 43%
Under 2.5: 57%
Goal: 47%
No Goal: 53%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 25.8
Expected Spread: +0.4

Why the Model Leans Sp Gijon

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Sp Gijon
Defense +3.3 Sp Gijon
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +1.5 Celta B
Attack +0.8 Sp Gijon

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 65% for Sp Gijon. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Sp Gijon attack & chance creation +2.2 Under
Celta B attack & chance creation +1.5 Under
Sp Gijon defense +1.1 Under
Celta B defense +1.0 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 57% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Castellon 7 6 1 0 14 2 12 19
2 Eibar 7 6 0 1 15 6 9 18
3 Almeria 7 5 0 2 11 4 7 15
4 Burgos 7 4 2 1 11 7 4 14
5 Girona 7 4 1 2 14 8 6 13
6 Mallorca 7 4 1 2 8 3 5 13
7 Sabadell 7 3 3 1 8 6 2 12
8 Oviedo 7 3 2 2 7 4 3 11
9 Tenerife 7 3 2 2 8 9 -1 11
10 Leganes 7 3 2 2 6 7 -1 11
11 Las Palmas 7 3 1 3 10 11 -1 10
12 Sp Gijon 7 3 1 3 5 6 -1 10
13 Granada 7 2 2 3 10 11 -1 8
14 Sociedad B 7 2 2 3 9 10 -1 8
15 Celta B 7 2 2 3 8 11 -3 8
16 Valladolid 7 2 2 3 6 9 -3 8
17 Andorra 7 2 0 5 12 15 -3 6
18 Cordoba 7 2 0 5 10 16 -6 6
19 Eldense 7 1 2 4 4 9 -5 5
20 Cadiz 7 0 4 3 7 10 -3 4
21 Ceuta 7 1 1 5 6 17 -11 4
22 Albacete 7 0 1 6 4 12 -8 1

Recent Trends

Sp Gijon L W L L W

  • Last Match: L vs Oviedo (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Andorra (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Eldense (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Girona (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Tenerife (Goals: 1 - 0)

Celta B D L L W L

  • Last Match: D vs Sabadell (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Almeria (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Eibar (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Ceuta (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Castellon (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Sp Gijon

Goals scored (avg, home) 0.25
Goals conceded (avg, home) 0.75
Clean Sheets 1

Celta B

Goals scored (avg, away) 0.67
Goals conceded (avg, away) 0.67
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Sp Gijon a 46% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 29% and Celta B at 25%. Sp Gijon are the favourite, but the gap to the other outcomes is modest. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 57% and sees both teams scoring in 47% of cases.

Match Analysis

Sp Gijon arrive with 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats from their last 5 league games (LWLLW from most recent), scoring 4 and conceding 6 with 1 clean sheet. Celta B arrive with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from their last 5 league games (DLLWL from most recent), scoring 4 and conceding 9 with 1 clean sheet. In the table Sp Gijon sit 12th with 10 points from 7 games and a goal difference of -1, while Celta B are 15th with 8 points and a goal difference of -3. That puts Sp Gijon 2 points clear of their opponent. Sp Gijon average 0.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over their last five home games, while Celta B average 0.7 scored and 0.7 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Sp Gijon), defense (3.3 points toward Sp Gijon), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (1.5 points toward Celta B). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Sp Gijon
Goals in last 5 matches
Celta B
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 57% and Over 2.5 at 43%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Sp Gijon matches produced 2.0 goals on average over their last 5, Celta B matches 2.6. Both teams to score comes in at 47%, no goal for at least one side at 53%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Sp Gijon attack & chance creation pulls toward Under by 2.2 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Sp Gijon
Corners in last 5 matches
Celta B
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.2 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 57%, which leaves 44% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Sp Gijon
Shots in last 5 matches
Celta B
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 25.8 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 25. The chance of 25 shots or fewer is 49%, which leaves 51% for 26 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Sp Gijon wins by X goals. Negative = Celta B wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Sp Gijon vs Celta B with expected spread of +0.4
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Sp Gijon vs Celta B
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.4 goals in favour of Sp Gijon. The spread model gives 28% to a Sp Gijon win by two goals or more and 37% to any Celta B win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Sp Gijon win (46%), Under 2.5 (57%), No Goal (53%). Expected totals: 9.2 corners and 25.8 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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