Segunda División 2026-2027: Valladolid vs Cordoba Prediction - 27 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Valladolid

Home Team
41%
VS

Cordoba

Away Team
28%
Draw: 31%
Over 2.5: 44%
Under 2.5: 56%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%
Expected Corners: 8.8
Expected Shots: 23.7
Expected Spread: -0.1

Why the Model Leans Valladolid

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Valladolid
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +3.9 Cordoba
Attack +1.8 Cordoba
Results & dominance +1.1 Valladolid
Defense +0.8 Valladolid

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 59% for Valladolid. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Valladolid attack & chance creation +3.2 Under
League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Valladolid defense +2.3 Under
Cordoba attack & chance creation +2.0 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 56% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Castellon 6 5 1 0 12 2 10 16
2 Eibar 6 5 0 1 12 4 8 15
3 Mallorca 6 4 1 1 8 2 6 13
4 Almeria 6 4 0 2 10 4 6 12
5 Burgos 6 3 2 1 10 7 3 11
6 Sabadell 6 3 2 1 7 5 2 11
7 Leganes 6 3 2 1 6 5 1 11
8 Girona 6 3 1 2 12 8 4 10
9 Sp Gijon 6 3 1 2 5 4 1 10
10 Las Palmas 6 3 1 2 8 8 0 10
11 Tenerife 6 3 1 2 7 8 -1 10
12 Sociedad B 6 2 2 2 8 7 1 8
13 Oviedo 6 2 2 2 5 4 1 8
14 Granada 6 2 2 2 8 8 0 8
15 Celta B 6 2 1 3 7 10 -3 7
16 Cordoba 6 2 0 4 9 13 -4 6
17 Eldense 6 1 2 3 4 8 -4 5
18 Valladolid 6 1 2 3 3 8 -5 5
19 Cadiz 6 0 3 3 6 9 -3 3
20 Andorra 6 1 0 5 9 13 -4 3
21 Albacete 6 0 1 5 4 10 -6 1
22 Ceuta 6 0 1 5 3 16 -13 1
23 Celta 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24 Sociedad 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Recent Trends

Valladolid D L W D L

  • Last Match: D vs Ceuta (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Oviedo (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Andorra (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Cadiz (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Eibar (Goals: 0 - 1)

Cordoba W L L L W

  • Last Match: W vs Albacete (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Almeria (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Sabadell (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Granada (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Girona (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Valladolid

Goals scored (avg, home) 0.50
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.50
Clean Sheets 1

Cordoba

Goals scored (avg, away) 2.00
Goals conceded (avg, away) 2.33
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Valladolid a 41% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 31% and Cordoba at 28%. This is a tight call, with Valladolid only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 56% and sees both teams scoring in 51% of cases.

Match Analysis

Valladolid arrive with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (DLWDL from most recent), scoring 3 and conceding 6 with 1 clean sheet. Cordoba arrive with 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats from their last 5 league games (WLLLW from most recent), scoring 7 and conceding 10 with 0 clean sheets. In the table Valladolid sit 18th with 5 points from 6 games and a goal difference of -5, while Cordoba are 16th with 6 points and a goal difference of -4. That puts Cordoba 1 point clear of their opponent. Valladolid average 0.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over their last five home games, while Cordoba average 2.0 scored and 2.3 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Valladolid), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (3.9 points toward Cordoba), attack (1.8 points toward Cordoba). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Valladolid
Goals in last 5 matches
Cordoba
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 56% and Over 2.5 at 44%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Valladolid matches produced 1.8 goals on average over their last 5, Cordoba matches 3.4. Both teams to score comes in at 51%, no goal for at least one side at 49%. In the model's own attribution, Valladolid attack & chance creation pulls toward Under by 3.2 points and league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Valladolid
Corners in last 5 matches
Cordoba
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 8.8 corners in total. The single most likely count is 8. The chance of 8 corners or fewer is 48%, which leaves 52% for 9 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Valladolid
Shots in last 5 matches
Cordoba
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 23.7 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 23. The chance of 23 shots or fewer is 50%, which leaves 50% for 24 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Valladolid wins by X goals. Negative = Cordoba wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Valladolid vs Cordoba with expected spread of -0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Valladolid vs Cordoba
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.1 goals in favour of Cordoba. The spread model gives 21% to a Valladolid win by two goals or more and 46% to any Cordoba win. A Cordoba win by 1 is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Valladolid win (41%), Under 2.5 (56%), Goal (51%). Expected totals: 8.8 corners and 23.7 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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