Valladolid
Segunda División · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #17 of 22 in Segunda División 46 pts · 12W–10D–20L · GD -13
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Segunda División simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Valladolid?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 37 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Valladolid's results were 5.2% harder to call than the Segunda División average. How this is measured.
| Market | Valladolid | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 43.2% | 50.1% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 40.5% | 58.0% |
| Both teams to score | 56.8% | 56.0% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Segunda División | #18 | 1522 | 1557 | 1399 |
| 2024-25 | La Liga | #20 | 1518 | 1518 | 1214 |
| 2023-24 | Segunda División | #2 | 1648 | 1654 | 1618 |
| 2022-23 | La Liga | #18 | 1466 | 1491 | 1432 |
| 2021-22 | Segunda División | #1 | 1576 | 1688 | 1676 |
| 2020-21 | La Liga | #20 | 1498 | 1498 | 1341 |
| 2019-20 | La Liga | #15 | 1529 | 1532 | 1438 |
| 2018-19 | La Liga | #17 | 1502 | 1548 | 1432 |
| 2017-18 | Segunda División | #2 | 1471 | 1595 | 1595 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | at Almeria | L Valladolid 18.1% · draw 23.2% | L ✓ |
| May 24, 2026 | vs La Coruna | L Valladolid 30.8% · draw 30.2% | L ✓ |
| May 16, 2026 | at Santander | L Valladolid 18.0% · draw 21.9% | L ✓ |
| May 09, 2026 | vs Zaragoza | W Valladolid 49.0% · draw 27.5% | W ✓ |
| May 03, 2026 | at Las Palmas | L Valladolid 17.6% · draw 25.7% | L ✓ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vs Sociedad B | W Valladolid 67.9% · draw 20.1% | W ✓ |
| Apr 19, 2026 | at Andorra | L Valladolid 29.8% · draw 30.2% | L ✓ |
| Apr 13, 2026 | vs Eibar | W Valladolid 39.2% · draw 30.8% | D ✗ |
| Apr 04, 2026 | at Cultural Leonesa | W Valladolid 39.9% · draw 29.7% | L ✗ |
| Mar 31, 2026 | vs Cadiz | W Valladolid 55.2% · draw 25.9% | W ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
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