Valladolid

Segunda División · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1414 · #22 Segunda División 0W-1D-2L · 1 pts In line Updated Aug 31, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #22 of 22 45.8 expected pts · currently 1 pts after 3 matches

League title 0.0%
Promotion 0.3%
Automatic promotion 0.1%
Promotion playoffs 1.3%
Relegation 58.9%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full Segunda División simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Valladolid?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 37 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Valladolid's results were 5.2% harder to call than the Segunda División average. How this is measured.

MarketValladolidLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 43.2% 50.1%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 40.5% 58.0%
Both teams to score 56.8% 56.0%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 Segunda División #22 1424 1424 1414
2025-26 Segunda División #18 1522 1557 1399
2024-25 La Liga #20 1518 1518 1214
2023-24 Segunda División #2 1648 1654 1618
2022-23 La Liga #18 1466 1491 1432
2021-22 Segunda División #1 1576 1688 1676
2020-21 La Liga #20 1498 1498 1341
2019-20 La Liga #15 1529 1532 1438
2018-19 La Liga #17 1502 1548 1432
2017-18 Segunda División #2 1471 1595 1595

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 31, 2026 at Almeria L Valladolid 18.1% · draw 23.2% L ✓
May 24, 2026 vs La Coruna L Valladolid 30.8% · draw 30.2% L ✓
May 16, 2026 at Santander L Valladolid 18.0% · draw 21.9% L ✓
May 09, 2026 vs Zaragoza W Valladolid 49.0% · draw 27.5% W ✓
May 03, 2026 at Las Palmas L Valladolid 17.6% · draw 25.7% L ✓
Apr 25, 2026 vs Sociedad B W Valladolid 67.9% · draw 20.1% W ✓
Apr 19, 2026 at Andorra L Valladolid 29.8% · draw 30.2% L ✓
Apr 13, 2026 vs Eibar W Valladolid 39.2% · draw 30.8% D ✗
Apr 04, 2026 at Cultural Leonesa W Valladolid 39.9% · draw 29.7% L ✗
Mar 31, 2026 vs Cadiz W Valladolid 55.2% · draw 25.9% W ✓

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

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