Valladolid

Segunda División · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1474 · #15 Segunda División 3W-3D-3L · 12 pts In line Updated Oct 12, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #12 of 22 54.1 expected pts · currently 12 pts after 9 matches

League title 0.1%
Promotion 1.4%
Automatic promotion 0.4%
Promotion playoffs 7.0%
Relegation 11.4%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full Segunda División simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Valladolid?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 37 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Valladolid's results were 5.2% harder to call than the Segunda División average. How this is measured.

MarketValladolidLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 43.2% 50.1%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 40.5% 58.0%
Both teams to score 56.8% 56.0%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 Segunda División #15 1424 1474 1474
2025-26 Segunda División #18 1522 1557 1399
2024-25 La Liga #20 1518 1518 1214
2023-24 Segunda División #2 1648 1654 1618
2022-23 La Liga #18 1466 1491 1432
2021-22 Segunda División #1 1576 1688 1676
2020-21 La Liga #20 1498 1498 1341
2019-20 La Liga #15 1529 1532 1438
2018-19 La Liga #17 1502 1548 1432
2017-18 Segunda División #2 1471 1595 1595

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 12, 2026 vs Albacete W Valladolid 52.6% · draw 26.9% W ✓
Oct 04, 2026 at Las Palmas L Valladolid 27.5% · draw 30.1% D ✗
Sep 27, 2026 vs Cordoba W Valladolid 40.9% · draw 30.8% W ✓
Sep 20, 2026 at Ceuta L Valladolid 32.2% · draw 31.3% D ✗

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

The Segunda División title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0. Attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit: 

Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/valladolid">Segunda División title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)

Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in): 

<iframe src="https://www.predixsport.com/embed/title-odds/segunda_division"
        width="360" height="430" style="border:0;border-radius:10px" loading="lazy"
        title="Segunda División title odds & club ELO ratings · Predixsport"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/valladolid">Segunda División title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>
Preview widget All widgets