Serie B 2026-2027: Catanzaro vs Mantova Prediction - 11 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Catanzaro

Home Team
36%
VS

Mantova

Away Team
32%
Draw: 31%
Over 2.5: 50%
Under 2.5: 50%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Corners: 9.5
Expected Shots: 25.8
Expected Spread: -0.1

Why the Model Leans Catanzaro

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Catanzaro
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +5.1 Mantova
Defense +2.0 Mantova
Results & dominance +1.6 Mantova
Attack +0.7 Catanzaro

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 53% for Catanzaro. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Mantova defense +1.4 Over
Rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) +1.1 Over
Form & results +0.8 Over
Catanzaro attack & chance creation +0.6 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 50% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Palermo 5 4 1 0 10 5 5 13
2 Sudtirol 5 3 2 0 9 3 6 11
3 Mantova 5 3 2 0 10 5 5 11
4 Modena 5 3 1 1 8 4 4 10
5 Ascoli 5 3 1 1 7 4 3 10
6 Verona 5 2 1 2 10 7 3 7
7 Avellino 5 2 1 2 7 6 1 7
8 Cesena 5 1 4 0 7 6 1 7
9 Benevento 5 2 1 2 6 5 1 7
10 Pisa 5 2 1 2 8 8 0 7
11 Padova 5 2 1 2 5 6 -1 7
12 Empoli 5 2 0 3 4 6 -2 6
13 Arezzo 5 2 0 3 6 13 -7 6
14 Virtus Entella 5 1 2 2 7 6 1 5
15 Cremonese 5 1 2 2 5 7 -2 5
16 Vicenza 5 1 2 2 7 10 -3 5
17 Juve Stabia 5 1 2 2 4 7 -3 5
18 Sampdoria 5 1 1 3 5 9 -4 4
19 Catanzaro 5 1 0 4 5 9 -4 3
20 Carrarese 5 0 1 4 2 6 -4 1

Recent Trends

Catanzaro L W L L L

  • Last Match: L vs Sampdoria (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Carrarese (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Sudtirol (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Pisa (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Vicenza (Goals: 2 - 3)

Mantova D W D W W

  • Last Match: D vs Pisa (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Sampdoria (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Cesena (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Empoli (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Carrarese (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Catanzaro

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, home) 0.00
Clean Sheets 1

Mantova

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.50
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.00
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Catanzaro a 36% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 31% and Mantova at 32%. This is a tight call, with Catanzaro only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 50% and sees both teams scoring in 54% of cases.

Match Analysis

Catanzaro arrive with 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats from their last 5 league games (LWLLL from most recent), scoring 5 and conceding 9 with 1 clean sheet. Mantova arrive with 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats from their last 5 league games (DWDWW from most recent), scoring 10 and conceding 5 with 1 clean sheet. In the table Catanzaro sit 19th with 3 points from 5 games and a goal difference of -4, while Mantova are 3rd with 11 points and a goal difference of +5. That puts Mantova 8 points clear of their opponent. Catanzaro average 1.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded over their last five home games, while Mantova average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Catanzaro), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (5.1 points toward Mantova), defense (2.0 points toward Mantova). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Catanzaro
Goals in last 5 matches
Mantova
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 50% and Over 2.5 at 50%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Catanzaro matches produced 2.8 goals on average over their last 5, Mantova matches 3.0. Both teams to score comes in at 54%, no goal for at least one side at 46%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Mantova defense pulls toward Over by 1.4 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Catanzaro
Corners in last 5 matches
Mantova
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.5 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 52%, which leaves 48% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Catanzaro
Shots in last 5 matches
Mantova
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 25.8 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 25. The chance of 25 shots or fewer is 49%, which leaves 51% for 26 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Catanzaro wins by X goals. Negative = Mantova wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Catanzaro vs Mantova with expected spread of -0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Catanzaro vs Mantova
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.1 goals in favour of Mantova. The spread model gives 21% to a Catanzaro win by two goals or more and 45% to any Mantova win. A Mantova win by 1 is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Catanzaro win (36%), Over 2.5 (50%), Goal (54%). Expected totals: 9.5 corners and 25.8 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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