Mantova

Serie B · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1588 · #2 Serie B 4W-2D-0L · 14 pts In line Updated Oct 11, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #2 of 20 64.5 expected pts · currently 14 pts after 6 matches

League title 17.4%
Promotion 57.3%
Automatic promotion 42.1%
Promotion playoffs 50.7%
Relegation playout 0.3%
Relegation 0.1%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full Serie B simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Mantova?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 33 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Mantova's results were 0.8% easier to call than the Serie B average. How this is measured.

MarketMantovaLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 51.5% 49.7%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 39.4% 54.2%
Both teams to score 48.5% 52.7%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 Serie B #2 1544 1588 1588
2025-26 Serie B #6 1482 1532 1523
2024-25 Serie B #14 1502 1526 1489

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 11, 2026 at Catanzaro L Mantova 32.3% · draw 31.4% W ✗

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

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