Serie B 2026-2027: Vicenza vs Pisa Prediction - 10 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Vicenza

Home Team
32%
VS

Pisa

Away Team
38%
Draw: 30%
Over 2.5: 52%
Under 2.5: 48%
Goal: 58%
No Goal: 42%
Expected Corners: 10.1
Expected Shots: 25.1
Expected Spread: -0.2

Why the Model Leans Pisa

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Vicenza
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +5.1 Pisa
Defense +4.1 Pisa
Results & dominance +3.8 Pisa
Attack +1.4 Pisa

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 54% for Pisa. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Vicenza defense +1.9 Over
Pisa attack & chance creation +1.1 Over
Vicenza attack & chance creation +1.1 Over
Form & results +0.8 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 52% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Palermo 5 4 1 0 10 5 5 13
2 Sudtirol 5 3 2 0 9 3 6 11
3 Mantova 5 3 2 0 10 5 5 11
4 Modena 5 3 1 1 8 4 4 10
5 Ascoli 5 3 1 1 7 4 3 10
6 Verona 5 2 1 2 10 7 3 7
7 Avellino 5 2 1 2 7 6 1 7
8 Cesena 5 1 4 0 7 6 1 7
9 Benevento 5 2 1 2 6 5 1 7
10 Pisa 5 2 1 2 8 8 0 7
11 Padova 5 2 1 2 5 6 -1 7
12 Empoli 5 2 0 3 4 6 -2 6
13 Arezzo 5 2 0 3 6 13 -7 6
14 Virtus Entella 5 1 2 2 7 6 1 5
15 Cremonese 5 1 2 2 5 7 -2 5
16 Vicenza 5 1 2 2 7 10 -3 5
17 Juve Stabia 5 1 2 2 4 7 -3 5
18 Sampdoria 5 1 1 3 5 9 -4 4
19 Catanzaro 5 1 0 4 5 9 -4 3
20 Carrarese 5 0 1 4 2 6 -4 1

Recent Trends

Vicenza L D D L W

  • Last Match: L vs Verona (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Juve Stabia (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Virtus Entella (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Avellino (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Catanzaro (Goals: 3 - 2)

Pisa D L W W L

  • Last Match: D vs Mantova (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Virtus Entella (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Juve Stabia (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Catanzaro (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Padova (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Vicenza

Goals scored (avg, home) 2.00
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.50
Clean Sheets 0

Pisa

Goals scored (avg, away) 2.50
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.00
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Vicenza a 32% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 30% and Pisa at 38%. This is a tight call, with Pisa only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 52% and sees both teams scoring in 58% of cases.

Match Analysis

Vicenza arrive with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (LDDLW from most recent), scoring 7 and conceding 10 with 0 clean sheets. Pisa arrive with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (DLWWL from most recent), scoring 8 and conceding 8 with 1 clean sheet. In the table Vicenza sit 16th with 5 points from 5 games and a goal difference of -3, while Pisa are 10th with 7 points and a level goal difference. That puts Pisa 2 points clear of their opponent. Vicenza average 2.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over their last five home games, while Pisa average 2.5 scored and 1.0 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Vicenza), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (5.1 points toward Pisa), defense (4.1 points toward Pisa). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Vicenza
Goals in last 5 matches
Pisa
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 48% and Over 2.5 at 52%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Vicenza matches produced 3.4 goals on average over their last 5, Pisa matches 3.2. Both teams to score comes in at 58%, no goal for at least one side at 42%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Vicenza defense pulls toward Over by 1.9 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Vicenza
Corners in last 5 matches
Pisa
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 10.1 corners in total. The single most likely count is 10. The chance of 10 corners or fewer is 57%, which leaves 43% for 11 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Vicenza
Shots in last 5 matches
Pisa
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 25.1 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 25. The chance of 25 shots or fewer is 55%, which leaves 45% for 26 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Vicenza wins by X goals. Negative = Pisa wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Vicenza vs Pisa with expected spread of -0.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Vicenza vs Pisa
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.2 goals in favour of Pisa. The spread model gives 20% to a Vicenza win by two goals or more and 47% to any Pisa win. A Pisa win by 1 is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Pisa win (38%), Over 2.5 (52%), Goal (58%). Expected totals: 10.1 corners and 25.1 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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