NBA 2025-2026: Denver Nuggets vs Utah Jazz: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Denver Nuggets

Home Team
93.6%
VS

Utah Jazz

Away Team
6.4%
2025-2026 Season

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Starting Five Matchup

PG
Jamal Murray
OR
124.1
DR
120.0
PTS
25.4
VS
Cody Williams
OR
99.4
DR
124.2
PTS
7.7
SG
Christian Braun
OR
123.5
DR
117.9
PTS
11.7
VS
Elijah Harkless
OR
106.0
DR
121.3
PTS
6.8
SF
Aaron Gordon
OR
121.3
DR
115.2
PTS
16.6
VS
John Konchar
OR
105.9
DR
115.1
PTS
4.5
PF
Cameron Johnson
OR
123.1
DR
118.9
PTS
11.9
VS
Ace Bailey
OR
106.8
DR
122.6
PTS
13.4
C
Nikola Jokić
OR
135.3
DR
112.5
PTS
27.8
VS
Kyle Filipowski
OR
112.8
DR
118.4
PTS
10.5
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

The model picks the Denver Nuggets to win with a 93.6% probability. Expected starting fives — Denver: Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Aaron Gordon, Cameron Johnson, Nikola Jokić; Utah: Cody Williams, Elijah Harkless, John Konchar, Ace Bailey, Kyle Filipowski.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected combined score is 240.24 points, suggesting a fairly high-scoring game and an up-tempo outing. The expected spread is 17.32 (Home - Away), giving a large advantage to the home team by 17.32 points.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 240.2 Most likely outcome: 240 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Denver Nuggets - Utah Jazz) 17.3 Most likely outcome: 18 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Denver’s power rating is rising over the last five games while Utah’s is falling.

Denver Nuggets

1582.2 +30.9 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-25 Dallas Mavericks 1582.2 +3.9
2026-03-24 Phoenix Suns 1578.3 +9.4
2026-03-22 Portland Trail Blazers 1568.9 +8.5
2026-03-20 Toronto Raptors 1560.4 +9.1
2026-03-18 Memphis Grizzlies 1551.3 —

Utah Jazz

1319.1 -10.7 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-25 Washington Wizards 1319.1 -13.7
2026-03-23 Toronto Raptors 1332.8 -6.1
2026-03-21 Philadelphia 76ers 1338.9 -6.1
2026-03-19 Milwaukee Bucks 1345.0 +15.2
2026-03-18 Minnesota Timberwolves 1329.8 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Denver Nuggets

4-1 in last 5
W W W W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Dallas Mavericks 142 135 +7
Phoenix Suns 125 123 +2
Portland Trail Blazers 128 112 +16
Toronto Raptors 121 115 +6
Memphis Grizzlies 118 125 -7

Utah Jazz

1-4 in last 5
L L L W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Washington Wizards 110 133 -23
Toronto Raptors 127 143 -16
Philadelphia 76ers 116 126 -10
Milwaukee Bucks 128 96 +32
Minnesota Timberwolves 111 147 -36

Game Analysis

Denver arrives on a three-game winning streak, beating Dallas 142-135, Phoenix 125-123, and Portland 128-112, showing sustained offense and the ability to close tight games. Utah is on a three-game skid, losing 110-133 to Washington, 127-143 to Toronto, and 116-126 to Philadelphia, signaling trouble on both ends recently. Those recent results favor Denver’s momentum and consistency. Looking at the expected starters, Denver’s five average offensive rating is 125.46 and defensive rating 116.90, with an average of 18.68 points made per starter; Nikola Jokić (OFF 135.3, 27.8 PTS) and Jamal Murray (OFF 124.1, 25.4 PTS) drive that output. Utah’s projected starters average an offensive rating of 106.18, defensive rating of 120.32, and 8.58 points made per starter, indicating a sizable gap in both offensive firepower and defensive efficiency.

Final Prediction

Denver’s combination of higher offensive efficiency, better defensive numbers, and positive momentum gives them a clear edge. Key factor to watch: how effectively Denver’s duo of Jokić and Murray produces against Utah’s rotation and whether Utah can slow the pace to keep this within reach.

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