Denver Nuggets
Western Conference · ELO profile, season simulation & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per game day: the team's ELO rating after that day's result, including playoffs. NBA ratings are season-scoped in our engine (every team re-seeds at 1500 each October, then the rating updates after every game), so trajectories are shown one season at a time and seasons are compared through their peak and final values in the table below. Hover a point for the date and the team's league-wide ELO position.
How predictable are the Denver Nuggets?
Chaos team 2025-26 · 82 predicted games
We grade every game forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade, with bigger penalties the more confident we were. Averaged over the season, the Denver Nuggets were 16.0% harder to call than the NBA average. How this is measured.
| Season | Games | Winner acc | NBA avg | Confident calls (≥65%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 57.3% | 67.4% | 69.6% (NBA 80.1%) |
| 2024-25 | 90 | 64.4% | 67.3% | 64.9% (NBA 75.5%) |
Share of predicted games our published game-day prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average of the same season. In 2025-26 the Denver Nuggets won 4 games as a clear underdog (we gave them under 35%) and lost 10 as a clear favorite (65% or more).
Season by season
| Season | GP | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 88 | #6 | 1491 | 1653 | 1613 |
| 2024-25 | 96 | #6 | 1488 | 1621 | 1614 |
| 2023-24 | 94 | #4 | 1510 | 1669 | 1644 |
| 2022-23 | 102 | #1 | 1489 | 1674 | 1674 |
| 2021-22 | 87 | #11 | 1512 | 1592 | 1534 |
| 2020-21 | 82 | #8 | 1489 | 1636 | 1590 |
| 2019-20 | 92 | #7 | 1511 | 1622 | 1576 |
| 2018-19 | 96 | #6 | 1511 | 1630 | 1604 |
| 2017-18 | 82 | #9 | 1490 | 1583 | 1572 |
| 2016-17 | 82 | #11 | 1511 | 1533 | 1533 |
| 2015-16 | 82 | #21 | 1512 | 1512 | 1427 |
| 2014-15 | 82 | #23 | 1510 | 1516 | 1408 |
| 2013-14 | 82 | #20 | 1491 | 1555 | 1461 |
| 2012-13 | 88 | #3 | 1490 | 1692 | 1647 |
| 2011-12 | 73 | #8 | 1512 | 1577 | 1567 |
| 2010-11 | 87 | #10 | 1511 | 1610 | 1574 |
| 2009-10 | 88 | #9 | 1510 | 1632 | 1582 |
| 2008-09 | 98 | #4 | 1491 | 1660 | 1640 |
| 2007-08 | 86 | #10 | 1511 | 1599 | 1563 |
| 2006-07 | 87 | #10 | 1490 | 1592 | 1559 |
| 2005-06 | 87 | #16 | 1490 | 1571 | 1486 |
| 2004-05 | 87 | #7 | 1490 | 1645 | 1594 |
| 2003-04 | 87 | #12 | 1510 | 1565 | 1517 |
| 2002-03 | 82 | #29 | 1490 | 1491 | 1289 |
| 2001-02 | 82 | #25 | 1511 | 1514 | 1389 |
| 2000-01 | 82 | #19 | 1490 | 1572 | 1476 |
| 1999-00 | 82 | #21 | 1509 | 1532 | 1433 |
| 1998-99 | 50 | #26 | 1488 | 1488 | 1364 |
| 1997-98 | 82 | #29 | 1488 | 1488 | 1256 |
| 1996-97 | 82 | #27 | 1489 | 1501 | 1306 |
GP counts every game in the corpus including playoffs. Pos is the team's league-wide ELO rank at the last computed game day of that season. Start, Peak and End are ELO values within the season (each season re-seeds at 1500).
Covered players: projection predictability
| Player | Pos | Starts | Predictability score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Jones | SF | 40 | 12.2 |
| Peyton Watson | SF | 40 | 9.2 |
| Cameron Johnson | PF | 54 | 7.7 |
| Jamal Murray | PG | 75 | 5.8 |
| Nikola Jokić | C | 65 | 4.2 |
| Aaron Gordon | PF | 30 | 0.8 |
| Christian Braun | SG | 44 | -1.4 |
Every Denver Nuggets player with a predictability profile: started games only, 20-start minimum. The score measures how well our projections call the player's points and rebounds against a naive rolling average (higher is more predictable). Players without projection coverage are not listed.
Recent games: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 30, 2026 | at Minnesota Timberwolves | W Denver Nuggets 54.5% | L 98-110 ✗ |
| Apr 27, 2026 | vs Minnesota Timberwolves | W Denver Nuggets 77.9% | W 125-113 ✓ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | at Minnesota Timberwolves | W Denver Nuggets 52.1% | L 96-112 ✗ |
| Apr 23, 2026 | at Minnesota Timberwolves | W Denver Nuggets 51.7% | L 96-113 ✗ |
| Apr 20, 2026 | vs Minnesota Timberwolves | W Denver Nuggets 83.7% | L 114-119 ✗ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | vs Minnesota Timberwolves | W Denver Nuggets 81.7% | W 116-105 ✓ |
| Apr 12, 2026 | at San Antonio Spurs | L Denver Nuggets 11.1% | W 128-118 ✗ |
| Apr 10, 2026 | vs Oklahoma City Thunder | W Denver Nuggets 78.9% | W 127-107 ✓ |
| Apr 08, 2026 | vs Memphis Grizzlies | W Denver Nuggets 98.0% | W 136-119 ✓ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | vs Portland Trail Blazers | W Denver Nuggets 74.0% | W 137-132 ✓ |
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