NBA 2025-2026: Charlotte Hornets vs Boston Celtics: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Charlotte Hornets

Home Team
52.9%
VS

Boston Celtics

Away Team
47.1%
2025-2026 Season

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Starting Five Matchup

PG
LaMelo Ball
OR
116.0
DR
113.4
PTS
19.7
VS
Baylor Scheierman
OR
117.1
DR
113.0
PTS
4.9
SG
Brandon Miller
OR
113.3
DR
112.8
PTS
20.5
VS
Derrick White
OR
117.5
DR
112.3
PTS
17.1
SF
Kon Knueppel
OR
126.9
DR
116.3
PTS
19.0
VS
Jayson Tatum
OR
106.2
DR
107.1
PTS
19.8
PF
Miles Bridges
OR
118.9
DR
115.4
PTS
17.1
VS
Sam Hauser
OR
114.8
DR
115.4
PTS
8.9
C
Moussa Diabaté
OR
135.9
DR
111.1
PTS
8.1
VS
Neemias Queta
OR
134.9
DR
108.1
PTS
9.8
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Charlotte Hornets are projected to win (52.9% probability). Expected starting five — Charlotte: LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, Kon Knueppel, Miles Bridges, Moussa Diabaté. Boston: Baylor Scheierman, Derrick White, Jayson Tatum, Sam Hauser, Neemias Queta.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 216.1 points, indicating a moderately high-scoring game and a decent pace on both ends. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 1.83, giving the home side a slim 1.83-point advantage, although the overall projection still favors Charlotte.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 216.1 Most likely outcome: 216 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Charlotte Hornets - Boston Celtics) 1.8 Most likely outcome: 1 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams show rising power ratings over the last five games, with Boston up +10.2 and Charlotte up +7.9.

Charlotte Hornets

1591.6 +7.9 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-28 Philadelphia 76ers 1591.6 -12.3
2026-03-26 New York Knicks 1603.9 +11.3
2026-03-24 Sacramento Kings 1592.6 +4.7
2026-03-21 Memphis Grizzlies 1587.9 +4.2
2026-03-19 Orlando Magic 1583.7 —

Boston Celtics

1641.2 +10.2 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-27 Atlanta Hawks 1641.2 +7.8
2026-03-25 Oklahoma City Thunder 1633.4 +12.2
2026-03-22 Minnesota Timberwolves 1621.2 -13.3
2026-03-20 Memphis Grizzlies 1634.5 +3.5
2026-03-18 Golden State Warriors 1631.0 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Charlotte Hornets

4-1 in last 5
L W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Philadelphia 76ers 114 118 -4
New York Knicks 114 103 +11
Sacramento Kings 134 90 +44
Memphis Grizzlies 124 101 +23
Orlando Magic 130 111 +19

Boston Celtics

4-1 in last 5
W W L W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Atlanta Hawks 109 102 +7
Oklahoma City Thunder 119 109 +10
Minnesota Timberwolves 92 102 -10
Memphis Grizzlies 117 112 +5
Golden State Warriors 120 99 +21

Game Analysis

Charlotte enters 2-1 over the last three (loss 114-118 vs Philadelphia, wins 114-103 vs New York and 134-90 vs Sacramento), with the 134-point outing highlighting that their offense can explode. Boston is also 2-1 (wins 109-102 vs Atlanta and 119-109 vs Oklahoma City, loss 92-102 vs Minnesota), showing some offensive inconsistency after a low 92-point night. Looking at the expected starters, Charlotte’s five average an offensive rating of 122.2, a defensive rating of 113.8, and average points made of 16.9. Boston’s projected five average an offensive rating of 118.1, a defensive rating of 111.2, and average points made of 12.1. That suggests Charlotte has the edge in two-way scoring punch from their starters, while Boston’s starting five projects as the slightly better defensive unit.

Final Prediction

Charlotte’s edge comes from a higher-scoring starting five and recent offensive surge, which the projection rates just enough to overcome the home-court lean. Key factor to watch: whether Boston’s starters can slow Charlotte’s offense enough to exploit Boston’s stronger defensive rating.

Get Daily NBA Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven NBA predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel