Oklahoma City Thunder
Western Conference · ELO profile, season simulation & model record · includes the Seattle SuperSonics years
Season ELO trajectory
One point per game day: the team's ELO rating after that day's result, including playoffs. NBA ratings are season-scoped in our engine (every team re-seeds at 1500 each October, then the rating updates after every game), so trajectories are shown one season at a time and seasons are compared through their peak and final values in the table below. Hover a point for the date and the team's league-wide ELO position.
How predictable are the Oklahoma City Thunder?
On script 2025-26 · 90 predicted games
We grade every game forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade, with bigger penalties the more confident we were. Averaged over the season, the Oklahoma City Thunder were 18.4% easier to call than the NBA average. How this is measured.
| Season | Games | Winner acc | NBA avg | Confident calls (≥65%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 90 | 78.9% | 67.4% | 86.0% (NBA 80.1%) |
| 2024-25 | 99 | 77.8% | 67.3% | 86.4% (NBA 75.5%) |
Share of predicted games our published game-day prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average of the same season. In 2025-26 the Oklahoma City Thunder won 0 games as a clear underdog (we gave them under 35%) and lost 7 as a clear favorite (65% or more).
Season by season
| Season | GP | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 97 | #2 | 1509 | 1760 | 1734 |
| 2024-25 | 105 | #1 | 1512 | 1766 | 1759 |
| 2023-24 | 92 | #3 | 1512 | 1685 | 1649 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | #19 | 1490 | 1532 | 1500 |
| 2021-22 | 82 | #28 | 1489 | 1490 | 1337 |
| 2020-21 | 72 | #29 | 1511 | 1512 | 1311 |
| 2019-20 | 79 | #8 | 1491 | 1619 | 1574 |
| 2018-19 | 87 | #11 | 1490 | 1611 | 1552 |
| 2017-18 | 88 | #11 | 1511 | 1594 | 1570 |
| 2016-17 | 87 | #12 | 1511 | 1564 | 1530 |
| 2015-16 | 100 | #4 | 1510 | 1707 | 1682 |
| 2014-15 | 82 | #9 | 1489 | 1599 | 1553 |
| 2013-14 | 101 | #2 | 1511 | 1681 | 1649 |
| 2012-13 | 93 | #5 | 1491 | 1683 | 1633 |
| 2011-12 | 86 | #3 | 1510 | 1708 | 1664 |
| 2010-11 | 99 | #4 | 1510 | 1660 | 1632 |
| 2009-10 | 88 | #11 | 1510 | 1618 | 1573 |
| 2008-09 | 82 | #26 | 1489 | 1490 | 1382 |
| 2007-08 as Seattle SuperSonics | 82 | #26 | 1489 | 1489 | 1331 |
| 2006-07 as Seattle SuperSonics | 82 | #22 | 1489 | 1509 | 1415 |
| 2005-06 as Seattle SuperSonics | 82 | #17 | 1489 | 1499 | 1482 |
| 2004-05 as Seattle SuperSonics | 93 | #8 | 1488 | 1625 | 1567 |
| 2003-04 as Seattle SuperSonics | 82 | #16 | 1510 | 1540 | 1473 |
| 2002-03 as Seattle SuperSonics | 82 | #13 | 1510 | 1561 | 1526 |
| 2001-02 as Seattle SuperSonics | 87 | #9 | 1490 | 1597 | 1550 |
| 2000-01 as Seattle SuperSonics | 82 | #12 | 1490 | 1556 | 1554 |
| 1999-00 as Seattle SuperSonics | 87 | #16 | 1512 | 1592 | 1505 |
| 1998-99 as Seattle SuperSonics | 50 | #17 | 1510 | 1556 | 1488 |
| 1997-98 as Seattle SuperSonics | 92 | #6 | 1511 | 1674 | 1623 |
| 1996-97 as Seattle SuperSonics | 94 | #6 | 1490 | 1659 | 1623 |
GP counts every game in the corpus including playoffs. Pos is the team's league-wide ELO rank at the last computed game day of that season. Start, Peak and End are ELO values within the season (each season re-seeds at 1500).
Covered players: projection predictability
| Player | Pos | Starts | Predictability score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Williams | SG | 37 | 17.2 |
| Ajay Mitchell | SG | 23 | 9.1 |
| Cason Wallace | SG | 54 | 5.5 |
| Luguentz Dort | SF | 78 | 5.2 |
| Chet Holmgren | C | 80 | 4.3 |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | C | 54 | 3.2 |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | PG | 76 | 0.7 |
Every Oklahoma City Thunder player with a predictability profile: started games only, 20-start minimum. The score measures how well our projections call the player's points and rebounds against a naive rolling average (higher is more predictable). Players without projection coverage are not listed.
Recent games: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | vs San Antonio Spurs | W Oklahoma City Thunder 64.5% | L 103-111 ✗ |
| May 28, 2026 | at San Antonio Spurs | L Oklahoma City Thunder 36.6% | L 91-118 ✓ |
| May 26, 2026 | vs San Antonio Spurs | W Oklahoma City Thunder 77.4% | W 127-114 ✓ |
| May 24, 2026 | at San Antonio Spurs | L Oklahoma City Thunder 36.8% | L 82-103 ✓ |
| May 22, 2026 | at San Antonio Spurs | L Oklahoma City Thunder 35.4% | W 123-108 ✗ |
| May 20, 2026 | vs San Antonio Spurs | W Oklahoma City Thunder 73.8% | W 122-113 ✓ |
| May 18, 2026 | vs San Antonio Spurs | W Oklahoma City Thunder 73.5% | L 115-122 ✗ |
| May 11, 2026 | at Los Angeles Lakers | W Oklahoma City Thunder 55.9% | W 115-110 ✓ |
| May 09, 2026 | at Los Angeles Lakers | W Oklahoma City Thunder 57.7% | W 131-108 ✓ |
| May 07, 2026 | vs Los Angeles Lakers | W Oklahoma City Thunder 88.9% | W 125-107 ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The NBA team ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/nba-teams/oklahoma-city-thunder">NBA team ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
<iframe src="https://www.predixsport.com/embed/elo-table/nba"
width="360" height="430" style="border:0;border-radius:10px" loading="lazy"
title="NBA team ELO ratings — Predixsport"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/nba-teams/oklahoma-city-thunder">NBA team ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>