NBA 2025-2026: Brooklyn Nets vs Atlanta Hawks: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Brooklyn Nets
Home Team
19.6%
VS
Atlanta Hawks
Away Team
80.4%
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AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.
HOME Brooklyn Nets
Nolan Traoré
PTS
12.9
REB
3.5
AST
5.6
3PM
1.6
Distribution (PDF)
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Drake Powell
PTS
9.1
REB
3.3
AST
2.4
3PM
1.7
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Ziaire Williams
PTS
13.8
REB
3.9
AST
2.4
3PM
1.6
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Noah Clowney
PTS
13.0
REB
5.4
AST
2.0
3PM
2.1
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Nic Claxton
PTS
12.3
REB
7.8
AST
3.4
3PM
0.1
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AWAY Atlanta Hawks
CJ McCollum
PTS
19.2
REB
3.3
AST
4.1
3PM
2.4
Distribution (PDF)
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Dyson Daniels
PTS
12.6
REB
6.6
AST
5.4
3PM
0.3
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Nickeil Alexander-Walker
PTS
20.3
REB
3.9
AST
3.8
3PM
2.9
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Jalen Johnson
PTS
22.8
REB
8.9
AST
6.8
3PM
1.8
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Onyeka Okongwu
PTS
14.5
REB
6.8
AST
2.5
3PM
1.8
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Starting Five Matchup
PG
Nolan Traoré
OR
92.3
DR
121.7
PTS
8.5
VS
CJ McCollum
OR
111.2
DR
115.1
PTS
18.5
SG
Drake Powell
OR
101.6
DR
120.9
PTS
6.3
VS
Dyson Daniels
OR
117.5
DR
112.2
PTS
11.9
SF
Ziaire Williams
OR
109.2
DR
116.4
PTS
10.3
VS
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
OR
116.7
DR
116.2
PTS
20.6
PF
Noah Clowney
OR
103.5
DR
119.3
PTS
12.3
VS
Jalen Johnson
OR
116.5
DR
110.8
PTS
22.8
C
Nic Claxton
OR
123.8
DR
117.9
PTS
11.7
VS
Onyeka Okongwu
OR
116.2
DR
111.8
PTS
15.4
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Atlanta Hawks are the pick to win this one (80.4% chance).
Expected starting fives — Brooklyn Nets: Nolan Traoré, Drake Powell, Ziaire Williams, Noah Clowney, Nic Claxton. Atlanta Hawks: CJ McCollum, Dyson Daniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jalen Johnson, Onyeka Okongwu.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a high-scoring game with a combined total of about 229.65 points, indicating a fairly uptempo affair or efficient scoring on both ends. The expected spread is Home -12.2, giving the Hawks a large advantage at home and suggesting a comfortable win margin.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
229.7
Most likely outcome: 229 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Brooklyn Nets - Atlanta Hawks)
-12.2
Most likely outcome: -13 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Brooklyn’s power rating is essentially flat over the last five games while Atlanta’s has been rising noticeably.
Brooklyn Nets
1307.5
-0.1 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | Charlotte Hornets | 1307.5 | -4.4 |
| 2026-03-29 | Sacramento Kings | 1311.9 | +11.9 |
| 2026-03-27 | Los Angeles Lakers | 1300.0 | -2.6 |
| 2026-03-25 | Golden State Warriors | 1302.6 | -5.0 |
| 2026-03-23 | Portland Trail Blazers | 1307.6 | — |
Atlanta Hawks
1592.2
+18.7 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | Orlando Magic | 1592.2 | +10.4 |
| 2026-03-30 | Boston Celtics | 1581.8 | +12.2 |
| 2026-03-28 | Sacramento Kings | 1569.6 | +3.8 |
| 2026-03-27 | Boston Celtics | 1565.8 | -7.7 |
| 2026-03-25 | Detroit Pistons | 1573.5 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Brooklyn Nets
1-4 in last 5
L
W
L
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte Hornets | 86 | 117 | -31 | |
| Sacramento Kings | 116 | 99 | +17 | |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 99 | 116 | -17 | |
| Golden State Warriors | 106 | 109 | -3 | |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 99 | 134 | -35 |
Atlanta Hawks
4-1 in last 5
W
W
W
L
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando Magic | 130 | 101 | +29 | |
| Boston Celtics | 112 | 102 | +10 | |
| Sacramento Kings | 123 | 113 | +10 | |
| Boston Celtics | 102 | 109 | -7 | |
| Detroit Pistons | 130 | 129 | +1 |
Game Analysis
Brooklyn is 1-2 over its last three games with defensive lapses evident in two losses (117 and 116 points allowed) and one solid win (116-99). Atlanta arrives on a three-game winning streak, scoring 130, 112, and 123 while holding opponents around the 102–113 range — a clear hot stretch for the offense and solid defense. Recent form favors the Hawks both offensively and in overall momentum.
Looking at the expected starters, Brooklyn’s five average an offensive rating of about 106.1 and a defensive rating near 119.2, with a combined AVG_POINTS_MADE of 49.1. Atlanta’s projected starters average an offensive rating near 115.6 and a defensive rating around 113.2, with a combined AVG_POINTS_MADE of 89.2. That gap in both scoring output and offensive efficiency for the starters leans heavily toward Atlanta.
Final Prediction
Atlanta’s upward momentum, superior starter production, and the sizable 12.2-point home spread explain the edge. Key factor to watch: whether Brooklyn can disrupt Atlanta’s primary scorers (Jalen Johnson, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, CJ McCollum) enough to slow that expected offensive output.
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