Atlanta Hawks
Eastern Conference · ELO profile, season simulation & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per game day: the team's ELO rating after that day's result, including playoffs. NBA ratings are season-scoped in our engine (every team re-seeds at 1500 each October, then the rating updates after every game), so trajectories are shown one season at a time and seasons are compared through their peak and final values in the table below. Hover a point for the date and the team's league-wide ELO position.
How predictable are the Atlanta Hawks?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 82 predicted games
We grade every game forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade, with bigger penalties the more confident we were. Averaged over the season, the Atlanta Hawks were 0.4% harder to call than the NBA average. How this is measured.
| Season | Games | Winner acc | NBA avg | Confident calls (≥65%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 64.6% | 67.4% | 88.0% (NBA 80.1%) |
| 2024-25 | 76 | 59.2% | 67.3% | 67.7% (NBA 75.5%) |
Share of predicted games our published game-day prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average of the same season. In 2025-26 the Atlanta Hawks won 1 games as a clear underdog (we gave them under 35%) and lost 2 as a clear favorite (65% or more).
Season by season
| Season | GP | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 88 | #12 | 1488 | 1597 | 1554 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | #19 | 1509 | 1532 | 1486 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | #21 | 1490 | 1525 | 1449 |
| 2022-23 | 88 | #18 | 1510 | 1539 | 1501 |
| 2021-22 | 87 | #14 | 1512 | 1552 | 1524 |
| 2020-21 | 90 | #7 | 1512 | 1631 | 1603 |
| 2019-20 | 67 | #25 | 1513 | 1522 | 1386 |
| 2018-19 | 82 | #22 | 1489 | 1502 | 1427 |
| 2017-18 | 82 | #24 | 1511 | 1511 | 1370 |
| 2016-17 | 88 | #16 | 1510 | 1564 | 1485 |
| 2015-16 | 92 | #9 | 1488 | 1601 | 1564 |
| 2014-15 | 98 | #7 | 1490 | 1715 | 1598 |
| 2013-14 | 89 | #19 | 1490 | 1533 | 1469 |
| 2012-13 | 88 | #16 | 1490 | 1568 | 1482 |
| 2011-12 | 72 | #11 | 1514 | 1582 | 1555 |
| 2010-11 | 94 | #14 | 1512 | 1580 | 1511 |
| 2009-10 | 93 | #12 | 1510 | 1614 | 1572 |
| 2008-09 | 93 | #13 | 1512 | 1579 | 1530 |
| 2007-08 | 89 | #17 | 1511 | 1531 | 1485 |
| 2006-07 | 82 | #26 | 1490 | 1532 | 1387 |
| 2005-06 | 82 | #27 | 1489 | 1489 | 1374 |
| 2004-05 | 82 | #30 | 1488 | 1488 | 1234 |
| 2003-04 | 82 | #24 | 1491 | 1491 | 1398 |
| 2002-03 | 82 | #21 | 1490 | 1522 | 1461 |
| 2001-02 | 82 | #19 | 1491 | 1491 | 1447 |
| 2000-01 | 82 | #24 | 1487 | 1487 | 1352 |
| 1999-00 | 82 | #25 | 1490 | 1517 | 1358 |
| 1998-99 | 59 | #12 | 1511 | 1594 | 1538 |
| 1997-98 | 86 | #10 | 1511 | 1598 | 1567 |
| 1996-97 | 92 | #7 | 1490 | 1652 | 1616 |
GP counts every game in the corpus including playoffs. Pos is the team's league-wide ELO rank at the last computed game day of that season. Start, Peak and End are ELO values within the season (each season re-seeds at 1500).
Covered players: projection predictability
| Player | Pos | Starts | Predictability score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jock Landale | C | 21 | 23.8 |
| CJ McCollum | PG | 60 | 6.3 |
| Zaccharie Risacher | SF | 42 | 5.9 |
| Onyeka Okongwu | C | 67 | 4.8 |
| Dyson Daniels | SG | 76 | 2.7 |
| Jalen Johnson | SF | 73 | 2.5 |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | SG | 74 | 1.7 |
Every Atlanta Hawks player with a predictability profile: started games only, 20-start minimum. The score measures how well our projections call the player's points and rebounds against a naive rolling average (higher is more predictable). Players without projection coverage are not listed.
Recent games: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 30, 2026 | vs New York Knicks | L Atlanta Hawks 46.4% | L 89-140 ✓ |
| Apr 28, 2026 | at New York Knicks | L Atlanta Hawks 44.0% | L 97-126 ✓ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vs New York Knicks | W Atlanta Hawks 59.1% | L 98-114 ✗ |
| Apr 23, 2026 | vs New York Knicks | W Atlanta Hawks 64.2% | W 109-108 ✓ |
| Apr 20, 2026 | at New York Knicks | L Atlanta Hawks 42.4% | W 107-106 ✗ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | at New York Knicks | L Atlanta Hawks 32.3% | L 102-113 ✓ |
| Apr 12, 2026 | at Miami Heat | L Atlanta Hawks 19.3% | L 117-143 ✓ |
| Apr 10, 2026 | vs Cleveland Cavaliers | W Atlanta Hawks 70.7% | W 124-102 ✓ |
| Apr 08, 2026 | at Cleveland Cavaliers | L Atlanta Hawks 37.5% | L 116-122 ✓ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | vs New York Knicks | W Atlanta Hawks 59.2% | L 105-108 ✗ |
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