NBA 2025-2026: Philadelphia 76ers vs Minnesota Timberwolves: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Philadelphia 76ers
Home Team
57.1%
VS
Minnesota Timberwolves
Away Team
42.9%
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AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.
HOME Philadelphia 76ers
Tyrese Maxey
PTS
27.3
REB
4.9
AST
6.3
3PM
3.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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VJ Edgecombe
PTS
17.3
REB
4.9
AST
4.3
3PM
2.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Dominick Barlow
PTS
7.0
REB
5.0
AST
1.6
3PM
0.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Paul George
PTS
21.2
REB
5.9
AST
3.7
3PM
3.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Joel Embiid
PTS
28.6
REB
7.5
AST
4.0
3PM
2.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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AWAY Minnesota Timberwolves
Anthony Edwards
PTS
24.3
REB
4.1
AST
4.5
3PM
2.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Ayo Dosunmu
PTS
16.4
REB
5.7
AST
5.6
3PM
1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Donte DiVincenzo
PTS
14.2
REB
3.8
AST
3.6
3PM
3.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Julius Randle
PTS
22.0
REB
7.0
AST
5.2
3PM
1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Rudy Gobert
PTS
13.2
REB
11.3
AST
1.6
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Starting Five Matchup
PG
Tyrese Maxey
OR
121.4
DR
115.5
PTS
28.8
VS
Anthony Edwards
OR
118.2
DR
115.1
PTS
29.3
SG
VJ Edgecombe
OR
114.4
DR
116.7
PTS
16.1
VS
Ayo Dosunmu
OR
120.8
DR
112.0
PTS
13.8
SF
Dominick Barlow
OR
126.0
DR
116.5
PTS
7.9
VS
Donte DiVincenzo
OR
114.9
DR
113.9
PTS
12.4
PF
Paul George
OR
113.9
DR
112.5
PTS
17.5
VS
Julius Randle
OR
116.8
DR
113.7
PTS
21.1
C
Joel Embiid
OR
118.0
DR
114.9
PTS
26.9
VS
Rudy Gobert
OR
131.8
DR
109.4
PTS
11.1
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
The model favors the Philadelphia 76ers to win with a 57.1% probability. Expected starting fives — Philadelphia: Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe, Dominick Barlow, Paul George, Joel Embiid; Minnesota: Anthony Edwards, Ayo Dosunmu, Donte DiVincenzo, Julius Randle, Rudy Gobert.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The projected combined total is 239.49 points, pointing to a fast, high-scoring game where both teams can put up points. The expected spread is 5.51 (home minus away), meaning the home team is favored by roughly 5.5 points and will carry that built-in advantage.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
239.5
Most likely outcome: 239 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Philadelphia 76ers - Minnesota Timberwolves)
5.5
Most likely outcome: 5 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Philadelphia’s power rating has risen over the last five games while Minnesota’s has dipped.
Philadelphia 76ers
1522.3
+14.2 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | Washington Wizards | 1522.3 | +5.4 |
| 2026-03-30 | Miami Heat | 1516.9 | -10.8 |
| 2026-03-28 | Charlotte Hornets | 1527.7 | +12.2 |
| 2026-03-25 | Chicago Bulls | 1515.5 | +7.4 |
| 2026-03-23 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 1508.1 | — |
Minnesota Timberwolves
1569.2
-3.9 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | Detroit Pistons | 1569.2 | -7.6 |
| 2026-03-30 | Dallas Mavericks | 1576.8 | +6.4 |
| 2026-03-28 | Detroit Pistons | 1570.4 | -10.9 |
| 2026-03-25 | Houston Rockets | 1581.3 | +8.2 |
| 2026-03-22 | Boston Celtics | 1573.1 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Philadelphia 76ers
3-2 in last 5
W
L
W
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Wizards | 153 | 131 | +22 | |
| Miami Heat | 109 | 119 | -10 | |
| Charlotte Hornets | 118 | 114 | +4 | |
| Chicago Bulls | 157 | 137 | +20 | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 103 | 123 | -20 |
Minnesota Timberwolves
3-2 in last 5
L
W
L
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Pistons | 108 | 113 | -5 | |
| Dallas Mavericks | 124 | 94 | +30 | |
| Detroit Pistons | 87 | 109 | -22 | |
| Houston Rockets | 110 | 108 | +2 | |
| Boston Celtics | 102 | 92 | +10 |
Game Analysis
Philadelphia enters 2-1 over its last three — a dominant 153-131 win over Washington, a tight 118-114 victory over Charlotte, and a 109-119 loss to Miami — showing they can score in bunches but are vulnerable on occasion. Minnesota is 1-2 in the same span, with a strong 124-94 win over Dallas sandwiched between two losses to Detroit (108-113 and 87-109), a sign of inconsistency on both ends.
Looking at the starters, Philadelphia’s five average an offensive rating of 118.74, a defensive rating of 115.22, and a combined 97.2 points (19.44 per starter). Minnesota’s starters average an offensive rating of 120.50, a defensive rating of 112.82, and 87.7 combined points (17.54 per starter). Philly’s top scorers (Maxey 28.8, Embiid 26.9) give them firepower, while Minnesota’s group features Rudy Gobert’s interior impact (ORtg 131.8, DRtg 109.4) and Anthony Edwards’ scoring (29.3).
Final Prediction
Philadelphia’s upward momentum, higher per-starter scoring and recent form give them the edge in a projected close, high-scoring affair. Key factor to watch: how Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey handle Minnesota’s interior defense led by Rudy Gobert.
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