NBA 2025-2026: Indiana Pacers vs Minnesota Timberwolves: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Indiana Pacers
Home Team
34.5%
VS
Minnesota Timberwolves
Away Team
65.5%
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AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.
HOME Indiana Pacers
Quenton Jackson
PTS
11.3
REB
3.9
AST
4.0
3PM
1.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Ethan Thompson
PTS
7.6
REB
3.4
AST
1.8
3PM
1.7
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Jarace Walker
PTS
10.3
REB
4.6
AST
3.1
3PM
1.5
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Kobe Brown
PTS
10.8
REB
5.3
AST
2.5
3PM
1.5
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Micah Potter
PTS
10.9
REB
5.7
AST
1.6
3PM
1.6
Distribution (PDF)
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AWAY Minnesota Timberwolves
Mike Conley
PTS
8.7
REB
2.8
AST
3.7
3PM
2.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Ayo Dosunmu
PTS
16.7
REB
5.2
AST
4.6
3PM
2.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Donte DiVincenzo
PTS
14.1
REB
3.7
AST
3.2
3PM
3.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Julius Randle
PTS
22.8
REB
7.0
AST
4.9
3PM
1.8
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Rudy Gobert
PTS
13.0
REB
11.3
AST
1.7
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Starting Five Matchup
PG
Quenton Jackson
OR
108.3
DR
122.0
PTS
8.7
VS
Mike Conley
OR
110.7
DR
114.7
PTS
4.4
SG
Ethan Thompson
OR
83.7
DR
118.0
PTS
5.6
VS
Ayo Dosunmu
OR
120.5
DR
113.1
PTS
13.9
SF
Jarace Walker
OR
103.3
DR
118.9
PTS
11.5
VS
Donte DiVincenzo
OR
114.2
DR
114.1
PTS
12.3
PF
Kobe Brown
OR
117.7
DR
125.8
PTS
9.3
VS
Julius Randle
OR
116.6
DR
113.9
PTS
21.1
C
Micah Potter
OR
129.9
DR
120.0
PTS
9.3
VS
Rudy Gobert
OR
131.0
DR
109.7
PTS
11.0
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
The Minnesota Timberwolves are favored to win (68.2% probability).
Expected starting five — Indiana Pacers: Quenton Jackson, Ethan Thompson, Jarace Walker, Kobe Brown, Micah Potter. Minnesota Timberwolves: Mike Conley, Ayo Dosunmu, Donte DiVincenzo, Julius Randle, Rudy Gobert.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model projects a combined total of 223.87 points, suggesting a moderately high-scoring game with plenty of possessions and scoring opportunities. The expected spread (Home - Away) is -6.47, giving the home side roughly a 6.5-point edge — favoring Minnesota by about a touchdown.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
223.9
Most likely outcome: 223 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Indiana Pacers - Minnesota Timberwolves)
-6.5
Most likely outcome: -7 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Full distributions as structured data (JSON or CSV)
ELO Rating Trends
Indiana’s power rating has been rising recently (+23.7 over five games) while Minnesota’s has slipped (-23.2 over five games).
Indiana Pacers
1320.4
+23.7 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1320.4 | -2.6 |
| 2026-04-03 | Charlotte Hornets | 1323.0 | -3.5 |
| 2026-04-01 | Chicago Bulls | 1326.5 | +13.8 |
| 2026-03-29 | Miami Heat | 1312.7 | +16.0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Los Angeles Clippers | 1296.7 | — |
Minnesota Timberwolves
1547.2
-23.2 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Charlotte Hornets | 1547.2 | -10.4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1557.6 | -11.6 |
| 2026-04-02 | Detroit Pistons | 1569.2 | -7.6 |
| 2026-03-30 | Dallas Mavericks | 1576.8 | +6.4 |
| 2026-03-28 | Detroit Pistons | 1570.4 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Indiana Pacers
2-3 in last 5
L
L
W
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 108 | 117 | -9 | |
| Charlotte Hornets | 108 | 129 | -21 | |
| Chicago Bulls | 145 | 126 | +19 | |
| Miami Heat | 135 | 118 | +17 | |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 113 | 114 | -1 |
Minnesota Timberwolves
1-4 in last 5
L
L
L
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte Hornets | 108 | 122 | -14 | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 103 | 115 | -12 | |
| Detroit Pistons | 108 | 113 | -5 | |
| Dallas Mavericks | 124 | 94 | +30 | |
| Detroit Pistons | 87 | 109 | -22 |
Game Analysis
Indiana is 1-2 over the last three, with scores of 108-117 (L), 108-129 (L), and a 145-126 win; they’ve averaged 120.3 points and allowed 124.0 in that span, showing offensive upside but defensive inconsistency. Minnesota is 0-3, scoring 108, 103 and 108 while allowing 122, 115 and 113 — averaging 106.3 points and 116.7 allowed — a skid driven more by offensive struggles than defense alone.
Looking at the projected starting fives, Indiana’s group averages an offensive rating of about 108.6, defensive rating near 120.9, and 8.9 points made per starter. Minnesota’s five averages roughly a 118.6 offensive rating, 113.1 defensive rating, and 12.5 points made per starter. Those gaps — notably Minnesota’s higher offensive efficiency and better team defense — help explain the projected edge.
Final Prediction
Minnesota’s starting five offers a clearer two-way advantage in the provided numbers, which is why they’re the pick. The key factor to watch is how Minnesota’s defense and Rudy Gobert’s impact at the rim influence Indiana’s ability to score consistently.
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